Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Solar power prices to continue falling through 2025, experts say

Date:
December 12, 2012
Source:
Near Zero
Summary:
Prices for photovoltaic modules -- the part of solar panels that turn sunlight into electricity -- are expected to continue falling, in line with the long-term trend that has persisted since 1980, according to experts. On average, global installations per year are not expected to increase much from the record level in 2011, but the total installed solar capacity is expected to soar to 300 gigawatts by 2018, and 600 GW by 2025.

As the total amount of solar modules produced has increased over the past few decades (from left to right), the price per watt has also fallen. Prices 1975-2009 are from Nemet (2009), and prices for 2010 and 2011 are based on data from Navigant and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Red circles indicate the expectations from Near Zero's survey, for solar module prices at 300 GW and 600 GW of total installations (also called cumulative capacity). Also shown for reference in blue is the module price target of the Department of Energy's SunShot Program.
Credit: Near Zero

Prices for solar modules -- the part of solar panels that produce electricity -- will continue to fall, in line with the long-term trend since 1980, according to a survey of experts by Near Zero, , a nonprofit energy research organization. However, for prices to keep falling for the long term will require continued commitment to research, such as on materials used for making solar modules.

To get a sense of what future prices for solar power are likely to be, as well as other challenges and bottlenecks that the industry faces, Near Zero conducted a formal, quantitative survey (an "expert elicitation") that drew on from industry, universities, and national labs. Such surveys are a means of formally collecting expert judgments on a topic. By aggregating forecasts made independently by a variety of experts, the results reflect the collective wisdom of the group about how the solar power industry is most likely to develop, and also help to characterize the range of uncertainty about the future.

The survey asked experts for their expectations about future prices for modules as well as the expenditures for other parts of solar power systems, known as "balance of system" expenses. The experts were also asked how much solar power they expected would be installed in the coming years.

The experts expected the price of solar power systems will fall sufficiently that it will be far more competitive than it is today. The experts forecast a large expansion of the amount of installed solar power, increasing more than 10 times over the decade from 2010 to 2020, an expansion that will continue at a similar rate until at least 2025.

However, this success story is dependent on solar power prices continuing to fall, which will require continued and possibly increased levels of spending on research and development, the experts said. If solar power prices continue to fall as expected in the survey, then the large expansion of installed solar power could be achieved while requiring spending less each year than the world currently is spending on solar power installations. But if prices were to hold steady rather than falling, then the same expansion of solar power, over the period 2012 to 2025, would cost at least 50% more -- adding up to several hundred billion dollars.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Near Zero. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

Near Zero. "Solar power prices to continue falling through 2025, experts say." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 12 December 2012. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121212134211.htm>.
Near Zero. (2012, December 12). Solar power prices to continue falling through 2025, experts say. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 23, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121212134211.htm
Near Zero. "Solar power prices to continue falling through 2025, experts say." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121212134211.htm (accessed April 23, 2014).

Share This



More Matter & Energy News

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Air Force: $4.2B Saved from Grounding A-10s

Air Force: $4.2B Saved from Grounding A-10s

AP (Apr. 23, 2014) Speaking about the future of the United States Air Force, Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh says the choice to divest the A-10 fleet was logical and least impactful. (April 23) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Is North Korea Planning Nuclear Test #4?

Is North Korea Planning Nuclear Test #4?

Newsy (Apr. 22, 2014) South Korean officials say North Korea is preparing to conduct another nuclear test, but is Pyongyang just bluffing this time? Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
China Falls for 4x4s at Beijing Auto Show

China Falls for 4x4s at Beijing Auto Show

AFP (Apr. 22, 2014) The urban 4x4 is the latest must-have for Chinese drivers, whose conversion to the cult of the SUV is the talking point of this year's Beijing auto show. Duration: 00:40 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Hagel Gets Preview of New High-Tech Projects

Hagel Gets Preview of New High-Tech Projects

AP (Apr. 22, 2014) Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel is given hands-on demonstrations Tuesday of some of the newest research from DARPA _ the military's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency program. (April 22) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins