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BookmarkMay 1, 2005 — A mathematician has developed an estimate for how many no-hitters there will be in major league baseball this year, based on a simple statistical tool he uses in teaching his students. Researchers use a simple statistical tool known as the Poisson distribution to predict no-hitters and also the number of players hitting for the cycle, in which a player gets a single, double, triple and home run in the same game. A Poisson distribution predicts the number of events that will occur in a fixed time interval, provided that the events occur at random, independently in time, and at a constant rate.
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WEST POINT, N.Y.--Baseball fans know a no-hitter is a rare event. But now mathematicians are stepping up to the plate, using their students' interest in baseball to teach them about probability with a new prediction for this year's no-hitters.
Raymond Chu is a baseball fan on a mission: To be in the stands during a no-hitter. "To witness a no-hitter would be great because it's such a rarity in sports," he says.
Imagine being able to predict such a big-league event! Now, mathematicians at the United States Military Academy at West Point have a way to predict no-hitters that might help fans like Chu finally fulfill their fantasy.
"We're looking forward to see if the prediction actually occurs," says West Point mathematician Lt. Col. Mike Huber.
The prediction doesn't say exactly which player will throw a no-hitter ... But a no-hitter could happen on or about the 730 game of this season. Lt. Col. Huber says that would be somewhere around the end of May or the first week of June we should see a no-hitter.
Researchers found that a simple statistical tool called a Poisson curve works for no-hit predictions and also may predict another baseball rarity called hitting for the cycle. That's when one player hits a single, double, triple and a home run -- all in one game.
Lt. Col. Huber says, "I don't think we can predict the actual player or team that's going to have a no-hitter or hit for the cycle. That's the great part about baseball, is that fans can speculate."
He predicts four people will hit for the cycle this season -- two in the American League and two in the National League.
Superstitious baseball fans may think the idea of predicting a no-hitter will jinx the chances of it happening ... But just to show validity of the prediction tool, the Washington Nationals' Brad Wilkerson has already hit for the cycle in the second game of this season.
By the way ... The pitcher who holds the record for the most no-hitters is Nolan Ryan, who threw seven in his career and is regarded as the undisputed king of no-hitters.
