Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Adversaries Would Find Other Attack Methods, Game Theory Shows

Date:
August 2, 2001
Source:
University Of Illinois At Urbana-Champaign
Summary:
As Congress ponders a $3 billion increase in funding for a national missile defense system, University of Illinois professor Julian Palmore is looking at the program’s prospects for success from a mathematician’s perspective.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — As Congress ponders a $3 billion increase in funding for a national missile defense system, University of Illinois professor Julian Palmore is looking at the program’s prospects for success from a mathematician’s perspective.

To predict whether deployment of a proposed NMD system against an intercontinental ballistic missile attack makes sense, the UI mathematics professor and a colleague looked at applied basic insights drawn from a mathematical model known as game theory. Their conclusions are detailed in the August issue of the journal Defense Analysis, in a paper titled "A Game Theory View of Preventive Defense Against Ballistic Missile Attack." The paper’s co-author is Francois Melese, a professor of economics at the Defense Resources Management Institute’s Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. At the UI, Palmore is a faculty member in the UI’s Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security and teaches a course called "Technology and Security – Preventive Defense Against Weapons of Mass Destruction." He recently was chosen to serve as guest editor of a special issue of Defense Analysis on ballistic missile defense; the tentative publication date is April 2002. Regarding the feasibility of the proposed NMD, Palmore and Melese write in the current issue that "the underlying assumption is that the objective of the administration is to minimize overall risk to the nation (or to maximize deterrence) at the lowest cost to taxpayers. Game theory asks us to place ourselves in the shoes of our adversaries as we assess alternative measures in light of potential threats, hostile intent and preventive defense."

In one scenario described in the paper, Palmore and Melese consider the outcome of two-player games in which one player is the United States; the other, an adversary. The object of the game, as stated, "is to drive the adversary to use weapons other than ballistic missiles without the U.S. deploying a national missile defense." The logic is this, Palmore said: "If we build a defense which everybody including ourselves believed to be 100 percent effective against any single or small number of ICBMs launched with any warheads, then obviously one group is not going to spend money trying to launch an ICBM. They’re going to do one of the many other things. That’s the point that we raise in the paper: that protection is a placebo."

Because the proposed defense program is largely unproven and carries such a steep price tag, Palmore favors a go-slow approach over the rush to deployment – one that focuses on research and development and the examination of other credible alternatives.

"Everyone I talk to who thinks about these things is all for research and development," he said. "It’s the deployment issue which is the main sticking point."


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University Of Illinois At Urbana-Champaign. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

University Of Illinois At Urbana-Champaign. "Adversaries Would Find Other Attack Methods, Game Theory Shows." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 2 August 2001. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/08/010802080823.htm>.
University Of Illinois At Urbana-Champaign. (2001, August 2). Adversaries Would Find Other Attack Methods, Game Theory Shows. ScienceDaily. Retrieved August 1, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/08/010802080823.htm
University Of Illinois At Urbana-Champaign. "Adversaries Would Find Other Attack Methods, Game Theory Shows." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/08/010802080823.htm (accessed August 1, 2014).

Share This




More Computers & Math News

Friday, August 1, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Google Mystery Barge Headed For The Scrap Yard

Google Mystery Barge Headed For The Scrap Yard

Newsy (Aug. 1, 2014) We may never know what was going on inside one of Google's mystery barges in Portland, Maine as it's now headed for the scrap yard. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Escaping Email: Inspired Vision or Pipe Dream?

Escaping Email: Inspired Vision or Pipe Dream?

AP (Aug. 1, 2014) Dustin Moskovitz is plotting an escape from email, using his communications expertise in an attempt to change the way people connect at work, where the incessant drumbeat of email has become an excruciating annoyance. (Aug. 1) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Google (Kind Of) Complies With 'Right To Be Forgotten Law'

Google (Kind Of) Complies With 'Right To Be Forgotten Law'

Newsy (July 31, 2014) Google says it is following Europe's new "Right To Be Forgotten Law," which eliminates user information upon request, but only to a certain degree. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Tesla, Panasonic Ink Deal To Make Huge Battery 'Gigafactory'

Tesla, Panasonic Ink Deal To Make Huge Battery 'Gigafactory'

Newsy (July 31, 2014) The deal will help build a massive battery factory that Tesla says will produce 500,000 lithium batteries by 2020. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins