Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Math-based projections for MLB postseason

Date:
October 7, 2013
Source:
New Jersey Institute of Technology
Summary:
Now that Major League Baseball's regular season has ended with the exciting one-game tiebreaker that got the Rays to the next round, and with the Rays and the Pirates winning the one game playoff for the wild card team, a math professor has once again begun analyzing the probability of each team advancing through each round of baseball's postseason.

Now that Major League Baseball's regular season has ended with the exciting one-game tiebreaker that got the Rays to the next round, and with the Rays and the Pirates winning the one game playoff for the wild card team, NJIT math professor Bruce Bukiet has once again begun analyzing the probability of each team advancing through each round of baseball's postseason. "The Los Angeles Dodgers, who many thought were out of contention early in the season after a poor start, have the best chance to win their series (63%) against the Braves while the Detroit Tigers have a 59% chance to eliminate the Oakland A's. The Red Sox have a 55% chance of sending the Rays home and the Pirates have a 53% chance of defeating the St. Louis Cardinals in the best of 5 game Division Series round.

At the season's start, Bukiet used his mathematical model to project the number of wins each team should earn (see: http://m.njit.edu/~bukiet/baseball/SeasonProjections2013.html). Bukiet's model picked 2/3 of the ten post-season teams back in March (there were some ties in the original projections leading to the fraction), a result that beat nearly 90% of the experts (at Yahoo Sports, Sports Illustrated, ESPN and the Examiner) and that for the third year in four placed him first at Baseballphd.nets annual contest to pick the teams who would make it to the playoffs. Bukiet updates the probabilities of each team taking their series throughout the Major League Baseball post-season at http://m.njit.edu/~bukiet/baseball/playoffs13.htm.

On Bukiet's website, he provides the likelihood of each team taking the series in a given number of games. Going into the series, the most likely outcome (25%) is for the Dodgers to defeat the Braves win in four games. The Tigers' best chance (23%) is to win in 4, while the Red Sox' best chance (22%) is to win in 5 games. The Pirates' best chance (24%) is to win in four.

This is Bukiet's 13th year using his model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games each day during the baseball season. His picks (posted on www.egrandslam.com) have led to positive results for 9 of the 13 years (counting 2013's thus far positive performance).

The method uses a Markov process approach which he originally published in the journal Operations Research. The method enables one to assess prospective trades and evaluate who should win the Most Valuable Player and Cy Young Awards among various other applications. Bukiet's MVP and Cy Young results and the updated method to produce them have appeared in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sports. The model computes the probability of a team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, lineup and relievers scoring any number of runs along with home field advantage to compute the chance each team has to win a game.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by New Jersey Institute of Technology. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

New Jersey Institute of Technology. "Math-based projections for MLB postseason." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 7 October 2013. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/131007143317.htm>.
New Jersey Institute of Technology. (2013, October 7). Math-based projections for MLB postseason. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 21, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/131007143317.htm
New Jersey Institute of Technology. "Math-based projections for MLB postseason." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/131007143317.htm (accessed October 21, 2014).

Share This



More Computers & Math News

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Japanese Scientists Unveil Floating 3D Projection

Japanese Scientists Unveil Floating 3D Projection

Reuters - Innovations Video Online (Oct. 20, 2014) Scientists in Tokyo have demonstrated what they say is the world's first 3D projection that floats in mid air. A laser that fires a pulse up to a thousand times a second superheats molecules in the air, creating a spark which can be guided to certain points in the air to shape what the human eye perceives as an image. Matthew Stock reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Apple Enters Mobile Payment Business

Apple Enters Mobile Payment Business

AP (Oct. 20, 2014) Apple is making a strategic bet with the launch of Apple Pay, the mobile pay service aimed at turning your iPhone into your wallet. (Oct. 20) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Google To Protect Against Piracy ... At A Cost

Google To Protect Against Piracy ... At A Cost

Newsy (Oct. 20, 2014) Google is changing its search-engine results to protect content producers from piracy — for a price. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
What We Know About Microsoft's Rumored Smartwatch

What We Know About Microsoft's Rumored Smartwatch

Newsy (Oct. 20, 2014) Microsoft will reportedly release a smartwatch that works across different mobile platforms, has a two-day battery life and tracks heart rate. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories


Space & Time

Matter & Energy

Computers & Math

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins