Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Mathematics Might Save You A Trip To The ER

Date:
September 16, 2007
Source:
Tufts University, Health Sciences
Summary:
In an effort to better understand seasonality, or cyclic recurrences of disease, researchers have developed mathematical models utilizing daily data to more accurately predict the timing, severity and impact of disease. Developing such precise models is a step toward improving disease surveillance and public health alert systems, both of which are crucial to preventing the spread of some diseases.

Since the days of Hippocrates, people have known that certain illnesses come and go with the seasons. More recently, researchers have learned that these cyclic recurrences of disease, known as seasonality, are often related to the weather.

In order to accurately predict when outbreaks of disease will occur, and how many people will be effected, Elena Naumova, PhD, associate professor in the Department of Public Heath and Family Medicine at Tufts University School of Medicine in Boston, and colleagues, are studying seasonality by creating mathematical models based on environmental factors like outdoor temperature.

"Until recently, public health workers and epidemiologists have eyeballed outbreak cycles relative to the weather in order to estimate when the next outbreak will strike a population," explains Naumova. "But having a more accurate and reliable method of disease surveillance is crucial to forecasting outbreaks in order to implement warning systems," says Naumova. She and colleagues have developed mathematical models that will more accurately assess seasonality in an effort to better predict when an outbreak will peak and how many people may fall ill.

Naumova and colleagues tested their mathematical models with data gathered from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health on six diseases: giardiasis, cryptosporidiosis, salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis, shigellosis and hepatitis A, all characterized by nausea, diarrhea, abdominal cramping and often fever. Whereas many previous epidemiological studies investigating seasonality have used monthly data or quarterly data, Naumova and colleagues used daily data, enabling the researchers to detect more subtle changes in disease patterns that may have been previously overlooked.

"With more than 1,000 cases of salmonellosis alone each year in Massachusetts, awareness of these subtle changes is crucial because if the public can be alerted to an outbreak even a few days earlier, it would save time, healthcare costs, and most importantly, may save many people a trip to the hospital," says Naumova.

Using ten years of data (1992-2001), researchers analyzed the timing, duration and magnitude of each of these enteric, or intestinal, diseases and compared these values to the corresponding average daily outdoor temperature in Massachusetts. Both salmonellosis and cryptosporidiosis peaked at the end of July; the hottest time of year in Massachusetts. However, giardiasis, shigellosis and cryptosporidiosis outbreaks spiked one month after the temperature peak. There was no observable trend for hepatitis A.

"Several factors may explain the one-month delay of giardiasis, shigellosis and cryptosporidiosis," explains Naumova, "including different routes of transmission of each pathogen, greater spread of a disease due to close person-to-person contact, and different symptoms among patients. More than likely it is a combination of factors." Naumova also notes that this second peak in disease may be linked to recreational water use. "By August in Massachusetts, recreational water sources are at their warmest, having been heated all summer long. This higher water temperature, combined with close person-to-person contact, may be the reason for the second peak of outbreaks observed with these three pathogens."

Disease surveillance and alert systems are crucial to preventing the spread of disease. "At both the global and community level, public health officials are working with epidemiologists to develop standardized alert and response systems at the first signs of an outbreak," says Naumova. "It is our hope that this mathematical model, based on daily data, will contribute a degree of accuracy in the field of outbreak forecasting and disease surveillance."

This work was supported by a grant from the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health.

Naumova EN, Jagai JS, Matyas B, DeMaria Jr. A, MacNeill IB and Griffiths JK. Epidemiology and Infection. 2007 (February);135(2):281-292. "Seasonality in six enterically transmitted diseases and ambient temperature."

Naumova EN. Journal of Public Health Policy. 2006 (January);27(1):2-12. "Mystery of seasonality: getting the rhythm of nature."


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Tufts University, Health Sciences. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

Tufts University, Health Sciences. "Mathematics Might Save You A Trip To The ER." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 16 September 2007. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070912094024.htm>.
Tufts University, Health Sciences. (2007, September 16). Mathematics Might Save You A Trip To The ER. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 21, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070912094024.htm
Tufts University, Health Sciences. "Mathematics Might Save You A Trip To The ER." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070912094024.htm (accessed October 21, 2014).

Share This



More Health & Medicine News

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

CDC Revamps Ebola Guidelines After Criticism

CDC Revamps Ebola Guidelines After Criticism

Newsy (Oct. 21, 2014) The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have issued new protocols for healthcare workers interacting with Ebola patients. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
WHO: Ebola Vaccine Trials to Start a in January

WHO: Ebola Vaccine Trials to Start a in January

AP (Oct. 21, 2014) Tens of thousands of doses of experimental Ebola vaccines could be available for "real-world" testing in West Africa as soon as January as long as they are deemed safe in soon to start trials, the World Health Organization said Tuesday. (Oct. 21) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
First-Of-Its-Kind Treatment Gives Man Ability To Walk Again

First-Of-Its-Kind Treatment Gives Man Ability To Walk Again

Newsy (Oct. 21, 2014) A medical team has for the first time given a man the ability to walk again after transplanting cells from his brain onto his severed spinal cord. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
CDC Issues New Ebola Guidelines for Health Workers

CDC Issues New Ebola Guidelines for Health Workers

Reuters - US Online Video (Oct. 21, 2014) The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has set up new guidelines for health workers taking care of patients infected with Ebola. Linda So reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories


Health & Medicine

Mind & Brain

Living & Well

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins