Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

New light shed on cause of pandemic influenza

Date:
July 24, 2013
Source:
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Summary:
With the use of sophisticated mathematical modelling techniques, mathematicians have completed a study that explains the phenomenon of multiple waves of influenza pandemic in the last century.

With the use of sophisticated mathematical modelling techniques, a mathematician at PolyU and his co-researchers have completed a study that explains the phenomenon of multiple waves of influenza pandemic in the last century.

With the use of sophisticated mathematical modelling techniques, a mathematician at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) and his co-researchers have completed a study that explains the phenomenon of multiple waves of influenza pandemic in the last century.

Taking part in this advanced study is Dr Daihai He, Assistant Professor of PolyU's Department of Applied Mathematics. He has collaborated with four researchers in Canada to offer an explanation to the worst influenza pandemic in the history of humankind. The research team found that behavioural response has the largest impact among three primary factors causing the waves, thus paving the way for future enhancement on control strategies to the spread of influenza virus.

The 1918 flu epidemic was one of the world's deadliest natural disasters, causing the death of hundred thousands of people. Influenza pandemic appears to be characterized by multiple waves of incidence in one year, but the mechanism that explains this phenomenon has so far been elusive.

In explaining the deadly pandemic, Dr Daihai He and his teammates have incorporated in their mathematical model three contributing factors for multiple waves of influenza pandemic in England and Wales: (i) schools opening and closing, (ii) temperature changes during the outbreak, and (iii) changes in human behaviour in response to the outbreak.

Dr He and the researchers further applied this model to the reported influenza mortality during the 1918 pandemic in 334 British administrative units and estimate the epidemiological parameters. They have used information criteria to evaluate how well these three factors explain the observed patterns of mortality. The results indicate that all three factors are important, but behavioural responses had the largest effect.

The findings have recently been published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society Biological Sciences (July 2013 Issue). Dr He's expertise in advanced mathematics and statistics has helped improve our understanding of the spread of influenza virus at the population level and lead to improved strategies to control and minimize the spread of influenza virus.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. D. He, J. Dushoff, T. Day, J. Ma, D. J. D. Earn. Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2013; 280 (1766): 20131345 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.1345

Cite This Page:

The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. "New light shed on cause of pandemic influenza." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 24 July 2013. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/07/130724133121.htm>.
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. (2013, July 24). New light shed on cause of pandemic influenza. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 20, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/07/130724133121.htm
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. "New light shed on cause of pandemic influenza." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/07/130724133121.htm (accessed October 20, 2014).

Share This



More Health & Medicine News

Monday, October 20, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Microneedle Patch Promises Painless Pricks

Microneedle Patch Promises Painless Pricks

Reuters - Innovations Video Online (Oct. 18, 2014) Researchers at The National University of Singapore have invented a new microneedle patch that could offer a faster and less painful delivery of drugs such as insulin and painkillers. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Raw: Nurse Nina Pham Arrives in Maryland

Raw: Nurse Nina Pham Arrives in Maryland

AP (Oct. 17, 2014) The first nurse to be diagnosed with Ebola at a Dallas hospital walked down the stairs of an executive jet into an ambulance at an airport in Frederick, Maryland, on Thursday. Pham will be treated at the National Institutes of Health. (Oct. 16) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Raw: Cruise Ship Returns to US Over Ebola Fears

Raw: Cruise Ship Returns to US Over Ebola Fears

AP (Oct. 17, 2014) A Caribbean cruise ship carrying a Dallas health care worker who is being monitored for signs of the Ebola virus is heading back to Texas, US, after being refused permission to dock in Cozumel, Mexico. (Oct. 17) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Spanish Govt: Four Suspected Ebola Cases in Spain Test Negative

Spanish Govt: Four Suspected Ebola Cases in Spain Test Negative

AFP (Oct. 17, 2014) All four suspected Ebola cases admitted to hospitals in Spain on Thursday have tested negative for the deadly virus in a first round of tests, the government said Friday. Duration: 00:55 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories


Health & Medicine

Mind & Brain

Living & Well

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins