Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Bird Flu: Predictions Prompt Call For Antiviral Drugs To Be Shared

Date:
January 23, 2007
Source:
Public Library of Science
Summary:
New predictions about bird flu, involving the use of a mathematical model, suggest that international cooperation to share antiviral drugs might be the best way to deal with an emerging pandemic.

Simulated outbreak of a pandemic influenza in Europe. The epidemic starts in Hanoi, Vietnam, at the beginning of October with R0=1.9 and no containment interventions are considered. The snapshot refers to the situation in Europe on March 1 of the following year. Countries are shown with a different color corresponding to the average number of cases observed within the country by March 1, from cream (10^3 cases) to red color (10^6 cases). The local situation within each city is represented by peaks whose height scales logarithmically with the number of cases reported in the city, from 10^2 cases to 10^5 cases. Simulations consider 3100 urban areas worldwide (513 in Europe) while for the sake of visualization the map shows only a set of major European cities.
Credit: Image courtesy of Public Library of Science

New predictions about bird flu, involving the use of a mathematical model, suggest that international cooperation to share antiviral drugs might be the best way to deal with an emerging pandemic.

'Bird flu'(avian H5N1 influenza) has not triggered a worldwide human epidemic yet because it rarely passes between people. If it does acquire this ability, it would take 6-8 months to develop a vaccine effective against the new virus. Public health officials therefore need to consider how they would protect people during the first few months of a pandemic. Measures might include the use of antiviral drugs and international travel restrictions.

In a new study published in PLoS Medicine, researchers use detailed information on air travel to model the global spread of an emerging influenza pandemic and its containment. They conclude that much will depend on the 'reproductive number' (a measure of how many people an infectious individual infects on average) of the new virus that emerges. If this number is low, it will take many months before the virus spreads w orldwide and there will be plenty of time to bring an effective vaccine into use. But if the number is high then it could be difficult or impossible to contain the virus with vaccination.

Other measures could therefore be crucial, but it is likely that only a few countries will be able to stockpile supplies of drugs active against the virus. In these circumstances, compared with a 'selfish strategy' in which countries use their antiviral drugs only within their borders, limited worldwide sharing of antiviral drugs would slow down the spread of a flu virus by many months, to the benefit of both drug donors and recipients.

Citation: Colizza V, Barrat A, Barthelemy M, Valleron AJ, Vespignani A (2007) Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: Baseline case and containment interventions. PLoS Med 4(1): e13. (http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013)


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Public Library of Science. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

Public Library of Science. "Bird Flu: Predictions Prompt Call For Antiviral Drugs To Be Shared." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 23 January 2007. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/01/070123093535.htm>.
Public Library of Science. (2007, January 23). Bird Flu: Predictions Prompt Call For Antiviral Drugs To Be Shared. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 20, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/01/070123093535.htm
Public Library of Science. "Bird Flu: Predictions Prompt Call For Antiviral Drugs To Be Shared." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/01/070123093535.htm (accessed October 20, 2014).

Share This



More Health & Medicine News

Monday, October 20, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

How Nigeria Beat Its Ebola Outbreak

How Nigeria Beat Its Ebola Outbreak

Newsy (Oct. 20, 2014) The World Health Organization has declared Nigeria free of Ebola. Health experts credit a bit of luck and the government's initial response. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Another Study Suggests Viagra Is Good For The Heart

Another Study Suggests Viagra Is Good For The Heart

Newsy (Oct. 20, 2014) An ingredient in erectile-dysfunction medications such as Viagra could improve heart function. Perhaps not surprising, given Viagra's history. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Ebola Worries End for Dozens on U.S. Watch Lists

Ebola Worries End for Dozens on U.S. Watch Lists

Reuters - US Online Video (Oct. 20, 2014) Forty-three people who had contact with Thomas Eric Duncan, the first person diagnosed with Ebola in the U.S., were cleared overnight of twice-daily monitoring after 21 days of showing no symptoms. Rough Cut (no reporter narration). Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Fauci: Ebola Protocols to Focus on Training

Fauci: Ebola Protocols to Focus on Training

AP (Oct. 20, 2014) Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says he expects revised CDC protocols on Ebola to focus on training, observation and ensuring health care workers are more protected. (Oct. 20) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories


Health & Medicine

Mind & Brain

Living & Well

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins