## Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

# Mathematical Tools For Forecasting Stock Market Work For Ecology Too

Date:
January 5, 2008
Source:
University of Chicago Press Journals
Summary:
Animal populations and the stock market are hard to forecast. Both are generated by complicated, interdependent systems. Unlike financial stocks, where trades are meticulously recorded, scientists began estimating animal populations only a few decades ago. But a new technique makes it possible to use the same tools some banks use to forecast the stock market and apply them to ecology.

Animal populations and the stock market are hard to forecast. Both are generated by complicated, interdependent systems.

Unlike financial stocks, where trades are meticulously recorded, scientists began estimating animal populations only a few decades ago. But a new technique makes it possible to use the same tools some banks use to forecast the stock market and apply them to ecology.

The newly developed "Dewdrop Regression" can forecast fish populations with 3% the data previously required through other methods, according to Hsieh, Anderson, and Sugihara in an article appearing in The American Naturalist.

The migration of the forecast tools from finance to ecology parallels Dr. Sugihara's own journey. After proposing simplex projection in 1990 with Lord Robert May, later Chief Science Advisor of the UK and President of the Royal Society, Sugihara became a managing director of a major bank for several years.

Returning to academia and ecology, "I realized that even great ecologists were working with time series only a few tens of points long," Sugihara said. To apply data-hungry techniques to short time series, Hsieh et al. take data from several species collected simultaneously over a few years and stitch them together. A few test manipulations need to be applied; but when done properly, the technique is able to forecast with 15-20 points instead of 1,000. "You're doing significantly better than chance within four years," said Anderson.

But does it work for real world ecological problems? Using 40-year time series from 23 California fish species, Hsieh et al. showed that though they were <10% predictable alone, they become >60% predictable with the new procedure, combined with others from the same habitat. "When you consider that we're predicting the change, not just raw abundance, this accuracy becomes very exciting," Anderson said.

This research was published in the January issue of the American Naturalist.

Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University of Chicago Press Journals. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

University of Chicago Press Journals. "Mathematical Tools For Forecasting Stock Market Work For Ecology Too." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 5 January 2008. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080104171618.htm>.
University of Chicago Press Journals. (2008, January 5). Mathematical Tools For Forecasting Stock Market Work For Ecology Too. ScienceDaily. Retrieved July 23, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080104171618.htm
University of Chicago Press Journals. "Mathematical Tools For Forecasting Stock Market Work For Ecology Too." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080104171618.htm (accessed July 23, 2014).

## More Computers & Math News

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

### Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

### Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

AP Review: Amazon Fire Adds Spark to Smartphones

### AP Review: Amazon Fire Adds Spark to Smartphones

AP (July 22, 2014) — Amazon's new Fire phone uses tweaks to the Android operating system and some innovative features to set it apart from smartphones from the likes of Apple and Samsung. (July 22) Video provided by AP
Apple Roundup: Smartwatch, iPhone 6 Orders And A Backdoor

### Apple Roundup: Smartwatch, iPhone 6 Orders And A Backdoor

Newsy (July 22, 2014) — Patents, iPhone order and backdoors: there's a lot of Apple news coming out this week. Don't worry, we've got you covered. Video provided by Newsy
Google Plans To Speed Up Web Pages With New Image Format

### Google Plans To Speed Up Web Pages With New Image Format

Newsy (July 21, 2014) — Google is using compressed images in WebP format to help boost page loading times. The files are 25-to-34 percent smaller than PNGs and JPEGs. Video provided by Newsy
Uruguayan Creates Chess Game for Multiple Opponents

### Uruguayan Creates Chess Game for Multiple Opponents

AFP (July 19, 2014) — It no longer takes two to play chess – or at least according to a new version of the game invented by Uruguayan Gabriel Baldi, where up to four opponents can play. Duration: 00:31 Video provided by AFP

## Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):

Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

## In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Save/Print:
Share:

## Free Subscriptions

Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

## Get Social & Mobile

Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

## Have Feedback?

Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile iPhone Android Web