Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Mathematical Tools For Forecasting Stock Market Work For Ecology Too

Date:
January 5, 2008
Source:
University of Chicago Press Journals
Summary:
Animal populations and the stock market are hard to forecast. Both are generated by complicated, interdependent systems. Unlike financial stocks, where trades are meticulously recorded, scientists began estimating animal populations only a few decades ago. But a new technique makes it possible to use the same tools some banks use to forecast the stock market and apply them to ecology.

Animal populations and the stock market are hard to forecast. Both are generated by complicated, interdependent systems.

Unlike financial stocks, where trades are meticulously recorded, scientists began estimating animal populations only a few decades ago. But a new technique makes it possible to use the same tools some banks use to forecast the stock market and apply them to ecology.

The newly developed "Dewdrop Regression" can forecast fish populations with 3% the data previously required through other methods, according to Hsieh, Anderson, and Sugihara in an article appearing in The American Naturalist.

The migration of the forecast tools from finance to ecology parallels Dr. Sugihara's own journey. After proposing simplex projection in 1990 with Lord Robert May, later Chief Science Advisor of the UK and President of the Royal Society, Sugihara became a managing director of a major bank for several years.

Returning to academia and ecology, "I realized that even great ecologists were working with time series only a few tens of points long," Sugihara said. To apply data-hungry techniques to short time series, Hsieh et al. take data from several species collected simultaneously over a few years and stitch them together. A few test manipulations need to be applied; but when done properly, the technique is able to forecast with 15-20 points instead of 1,000. "You're doing significantly better than chance within four years," said Anderson.

But does it work for real world ecological problems? Using 40-year time series from 23 California fish species, Hsieh et al. showed that though they were <10% predictable alone, they become >60% predictable with the new procedure, combined with others from the same habitat. "When you consider that we're predicting the change, not just raw abundance, this accuracy becomes very exciting," Anderson said.

This research was published in the January issue of the American Naturalist.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University of Chicago Press Journals. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

University of Chicago Press Journals. "Mathematical Tools For Forecasting Stock Market Work For Ecology Too." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 5 January 2008. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080104171618.htm>.
University of Chicago Press Journals. (2008, January 5). Mathematical Tools For Forecasting Stock Market Work For Ecology Too. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 21, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080104171618.htm
University of Chicago Press Journals. "Mathematical Tools For Forecasting Stock Market Work For Ecology Too." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080104171618.htm (accessed October 21, 2014).

Share This



More Computers & Math News

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Thanks, Marty McFly! Hoverboards Could Be Coming In 2015

Thanks, Marty McFly! Hoverboards Could Be Coming In 2015

Newsy (Oct. 21, 2014) If you've ever watched "Back to the Future Part II" and wanted to get your hands on a hoverboard, well, you might soon be in luck. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Robots to Fly Planes Where Humans Can't

Robots to Fly Planes Where Humans Can't

Reuters - Innovations Video Online (Oct. 21, 2014) Researchers in South Korea are developing a robotic pilot that could potentially replace humans in the cockpit. Unlike drones and autopilot programs which are configured for specific aircraft, the robots' humanoid design will allow it to fly any type of plane with no additional sensors. Ben Gruber reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Japanese Scientists Unveil Floating 3D Projection

Japanese Scientists Unveil Floating 3D Projection

Reuters - Innovations Video Online (Oct. 20, 2014) Scientists in Tokyo have demonstrated what they say is the world's first 3D projection that floats in mid air. A laser that fires a pulse up to a thousand times a second superheats molecules in the air, creating a spark which can be guided to certain points in the air to shape what the human eye perceives as an image. Matthew Stock reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Apple Enters Mobile Payment Business

Apple Enters Mobile Payment Business

AP (Oct. 20, 2014) Apple is making a strategic bet with the launch of Apple Pay, the mobile pay service aimed at turning your iPhone into your wallet. (Oct. 20) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories


Space & Time

Matter & Energy

Computers & Math

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins