Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Formula Predicts Emergency Admissions In Adults Older Than 40

Date:
July 17, 2008
Source:
JAMA and Archives Journals
Summary:
Using data from clinical encounters and drug prescriptions over three years, researchers have devised a model to predict emergency hospital admissions in the following year in individuals age 40 and older, according to a new report.

Using data from clinical encounters and drug prescriptions over three years, researchers have devised a model to predict emergency hospital admissions in the following year in individuals age 40 and older, according to a new report.

Related Articles


Stratifying individuals by risk to target health care may help reverse the trend of increasing emergency hospital admissions, according to background information in the article. Several models have been previously developed to identify those at risk. However, most have focused on those older than 65 years or those who have already experienced multiple emergency admissions. "These algorithms clearly leave out of consideration the important group of people at high risk who are younger than 65 years and those who have never experienced an emergency admission but are likely to experience an emergency admission in the future," the authors write.

Peter T. Donnan, Ph.D., of the University of Dundee, Scotland, and colleagues studied 90,522 residents of Tayside, Scotland, where each individual who visits a general practitioner is given a 10-digit identifier. Participants were at least 40 years old when they entered the study between 1996 and 2004, had at least three years of data available on hospital use and drug prescribing and were followed for at least one year.

A total of 6,793 (7.5 percent) of the participants experienced an emergency hospital admission within one year of enrolling in the study. Those who were hospitalized tended to:

  • Be older and male
  • Live in an area with high social deprivation
  • Have received more respiratory medications
  • Have had previous emergency admissions, with average total days in the hospital six times greater than those who were not admitted on an emergency basis
  • Have been prescribed analgesics (pain medications), antibacterials, nitrates and diuretics

The researchers identified 35 such parameters that were used to derive the probability of emergency admission within the next year, expressed as a percentage. "As an example, consider a man aged 72 years and is from a highly deprived area; has previous emergency admissions, eight previous admissions and 106 total bed-days in the previous three years; and is in receipt of hypertension and heart failure drugs, nitrates and calcium channel blockers, respiratory drugs, anxiolytics, antidepressants, analgesics and antibacterials: the absolute risk of admission in the next year is 52.8 percent," the authors write.

On the other hand, a 50-year-old woman from an affluent area with no previous emergency admissions and one previous hospital admission with a one-day stay who takes ulcer-healing drugs, diuretics and antibiotics would have a 2.4 percent risk of emergency admission in the next year.

The model "provides a useful tool for the individual clinician in face-to-face consultation as well as the general practice as a whole, and for health insurers, policy makers and planners at the health board level faced with the increasing prevalence of hospital use," the authors conclude. "This work has immediate relevance to developing policy and service reorganization, as well as informing future intervention studies of different models of case management."

This study was funded by an unrestricted grant from NHS Tayside.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by JAMA and Archives Journals. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Peter T. Donnan; David W. T. Dorward; Bill Mutch; Andrew D. Morris. Development and Validation of a Model for Predicting Emergency Admissions Over the Next Year (PEONY): A UK Historical Cohort Study. Arch Intern Med., 2008;168(13):1416-1422 [link]

Cite This Page:

JAMA and Archives Journals. "Formula Predicts Emergency Admissions In Adults Older Than 40." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 17 July 2008. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/080714162615.htm>.
JAMA and Archives Journals. (2008, July 17). Formula Predicts Emergency Admissions In Adults Older Than 40. ScienceDaily. Retrieved March 29, 2015 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/080714162615.htm
JAMA and Archives Journals. "Formula Predicts Emergency Admissions In Adults Older Than 40." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/080714162615.htm (accessed March 29, 2015).

Share This


More From ScienceDaily



More Health & Medicine News

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

S. Leone in New Anti-Ebola Lockdown

S. Leone in New Anti-Ebola Lockdown

AFP (Mar. 28, 2015) — Sierra Leone imposed a three-day nationwide lockdown Friday for the second time in six months in a bid to prevent a resurgence of the deadly Ebola virus. Duration: 01:17 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com
These Popular Antibiotics Can Cause Permanent Nerve Damage

These Popular Antibiotics Can Cause Permanent Nerve Damage

Newsy (Mar. 27, 2015) — A popular class of antibiotic can leave patients in severe pain and even result in permanent nerve damage. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
WH Plan to Fight Antibiotic-Resistant Germs

WH Plan to Fight Antibiotic-Resistant Germs

AP (Mar. 27, 2015) — The White House on Friday announced a five-year plan to fight the threat posed by antibiotic-resistant bacteria amid fears that once-treatable germs could become deadly. (March 27) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
House Ready to Pass Medicare Doc Bill

House Ready to Pass Medicare Doc Bill

AP (Mar. 26, 2015) — In rare bipartisan harmony, congressional leaders pushed a $214 billion bill permanently blocking physician Medicare cuts toward House passage Thursday, moving lawmakers closer to resolving a problem that has plagued them for years. (March 26) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
 
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:  

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories

 

Health & Medicine

Mind & Brain

Living & Well

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:  

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile iPhone Android Web
Follow Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins