Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Win some, lose some: Expert provides reapportionment projections

Date:
November 10, 2010
Source:
University of Michigan
Summary:
Before the US Census Bureau releases its official state-level population counts to Congress on Dec. 31, a University of Michigan demographer offers projections of likely state winners and losers.

Before the U.S. Census Bureau releases its official state-level population counts to Congress on Dec. 31, a University of Michigan demographer offers projections of likely state winners and losers.

But she also cautions that there are likely to be plenty of surprises.

According to Lisa Neidert, data services manager at the U-M Institute for Social Research (ISR) Population Studies Center, the most likely state winners -- based on July 2009 population estimates from the Census Bureau -- are Texas (3 seats), and Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah, and Washington, each likely to pick up one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Neidert expects state losers to be Ohio (2 seats), and Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania -- each likely to lose one seat.

Neidert used an online apportionment calculator to project how changes in state populations would be reflected in the apportionment of House seats for 2010 as compared to 2000. Her analyses also identify which states are most at risk for losing or gaining Congressional seats after factoring in recent population changes.

To identify surprise winners and losers, Neidert compares several measures of state population growth in 2008-2009.

"One obvious weakness in using pre-census population estimates is that states vary in their population growth, and the estimates leave out the last 9 months of growth, from July 1, 2009 through April 1, 2010," Neidert said. However, this did not change the projections much, but that does not mean she expects her projections will be spot on. She says that the population estimates could be off a bit just like they were 10 years ago. And if these deviations vary by state, it can change the winners and losers in the apportionment battles.

Neidert identifies four factors that could affect population estimates. "The dramatic slowdown in both international and internal migration with the economic downturn and housing collapse could have a positive benefit to states in the Northeast and Midwest that have been donor states," Neidert said. "And the impact on states in the Sunbelt or the West could be negative, with not as many inmigrants."

The increase in home foreclosures could also affect the population counts of states with high foreclosure rates, such as Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Michigan. "Doubled-up households -- which have increased 11.6 percent between 2008 and 2009 according to the March Current Population Survey -- may not have been counted as well in the self-enumerated census," she said.

A third factor is the difficulty of estimating the Hispanic population, which is roughly 15 percent of the U.S. population, partly because of the undocumented population. The political posturing of whether or not to include non-citizens in the 2010 census and the new Arizona immigration law might have had an effect on the participation rate of Hispanics," Neidert said. "This could hurt any state with a high proportion of Hispanic residents.

Lastly, Neidert believes that the lingering effects of natural disasters, including Hurricane Katrina and the Haitian earthquake, might have an impact on population projections for Louisiana, and for New York and Florida, where Haitian refugees have mainly been settling.

"Expect the unexpected," in congressional reapportionment, Neidert concludes.

To access the online apportionment calculator and projections, visit http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/dis/census/apportion_estimates.html


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University of Michigan. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

University of Michigan. "Win some, lose some: Expert provides reapportionment projections." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 10 November 2010. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101110171517.htm>.
University of Michigan. (2010, November 10). Win some, lose some: Expert provides reapportionment projections. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 17, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101110171517.htm
University of Michigan. "Win some, lose some: Expert provides reapportionment projections." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101110171517.htm (accessed April 17, 2014).

Share This



More Science & Society News

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Small Reactors Could Be Future of Nuclear Energy

Small Reactors Could Be Future of Nuclear Energy

AP (Apr. 17, 2014) After the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the industry fell under intense scrutiny. Now, small underground nuclear power plants are being considered as the possible future of the nuclear energy. (April 17) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Heartbleed Hack Leads To Arrest

Heartbleed Hack Leads To Arrest

Newsy (Apr. 17, 2014) A 19-year-old computer science student has been arrested in relation to a data breach of 900 social insurance numbers from Canada's revenue agency. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Obama: 8 Million Healthcare Signups

Obama: 8 Million Healthcare Signups

AP (Apr. 17, 2014) President Barack Obama gave a briefing Thursday announcing 8 million people have signed up under the Affordable Care Act. He blasted continued Republican efforts to repeal the law. (April 17) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Yahoo's Ousted COO Gets $58M Severance Package

Yahoo's Ousted COO Gets $58M Severance Package

Newsy (Apr. 17, 2014) According to SEC filings, Yahoo gave ousted COO Henrique de Castro a $58 million severance package. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins