Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Quake forecast gets high score in study

Date:
October 3, 2011
Source:
NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Summary:
While earthquakes can't yet be predicted, scientists are making advances in their ability to forecast where they are most likely to occur, with the best forecasts now about 10 times more accurate than a random prediction, according to a new study.

A "seismic hotspot" map produced using the NASA-funded, UC-Davis-led forecast method. The colored areas (hotspots) are determined by computing the increase in potential for large (greater than magnitude 5.0) earthquakes. Research has shown this procedure locates areas (hotspots) that are sensitive to earthquake events greater than magnitude 5.0 that will occur over approximately the next 10 years. Blue spots indicate earthquakes in the hotspot area, while yellow spots indicate earthquakes that occurred outside of the forecast area. Note that the forecast is static, based on Holliday et al, 2007, while earthquakes above magnitude 5.0 are added when they occur. The scorecard is about 90 percent successful.
Credit: UC Davis

While earthquakes can't yet be predicted, scientists are making advances in their ability to forecast where they are most likely to occur, with the best forecasts now about 10 times more accurate than a random prediction, according to a new study by scientists at the University of California, Davis.

Related Articles


The researchers compared seven earthquake forecasts submitted to a competition organized by the Southern California Earthquake Center in 2005. Among the competitors was a NASA-funded forecast developed by a UC Davis-led group under NASA's QuakeSim program. Results of the study will be used to help researchers develop better quake forecasts and improve the tools they use to assess them.

The teams were invited to forecast the probability of an earthquake of magnitude 4.95 or greater occurring during the period from Jan. 1, 2006 through Dec. 31, 2010 in California and bordering areas. The region included in the competition was divided into approximately 8,000 grid squares. During the competition timeframe, 31 earthquakes of magnitude 4.95 or greater struck this region in 22 different grid areas.

While all the forecasts showed some success in forecasting the locations of likely earthquakes, the NASA-funded UC Davis forecast team, which included Andrea Donnellan of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., was found to be the most accurate at picking the quake locations. It correctly labeled 17 of the 22 affected grids, and gave the highest probability of an earthquake in eight of these 17.

"These forecasts are helping guide our data collection efforts by focusing our attention on regions with higher earthquake probability," said Donnellan. "This approach worked well for capturing the motions of the 2010 magnitude 7.2 El Mayor-Cucupah earthquake in Mexico's Baja California using NASA's Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar."

Study results were published Sept. 26 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. For more information on QuakeSim, visit: http://quakesim.org/ .


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Y.-T. Lee, D. L. Turcotte, J. R. Holliday, M. K. Sachs, J. B. Rundle, C.-C. Chen, K. F. Tiampo. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1113481108

Cite This Page:

NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "Quake forecast gets high score in study." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 3 October 2011. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111003190819.htm>.
NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory. (2011, October 3). Quake forecast gets high score in study. ScienceDaily. Retrieved December 17, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111003190819.htm
NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "Quake forecast gets high score in study." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111003190819.htm (accessed December 17, 2014).

Share This


More From ScienceDaily



More Earth & Climate News

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Ivory Trade Boom Swamps Law Efforts

Ivory Trade Boom Swamps Law Efforts

Reuters - Business Video Online (Dec. 17, 2014) Demand for ivory has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of African elephants and now a conservation report says the illegal trade is overwhelming efforts to enforce the law. Amy Pollock reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Uphill Battle to Tackle Indonesian Shark Fishing

Uphill Battle to Tackle Indonesian Shark Fishing

AFP (Dec. 17, 2014) Sharks are hauled ashore every day at a busy market on the central Indonesian island of Lombok, the hub of a booming trade that provides a livelihood for local fishermen but is increasingly alarming environmentalists. Duration: 00:42 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com
France's Sauternes Wine Threatened by New Train Line

France's Sauternes Wine Threatened by New Train Line

AFP (Dec. 16, 2014) Winemakers in southwestern France's Bordeaux are concerned about a proposed high speed train line that could affect the microclimate required for the region's sweet wine. Duration: 01:06 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com
2016 Olympic Waters Feature 'Super Bacteria' Researchers Say

2016 Olympic Waters Feature 'Super Bacteria' Researchers Say

Newsy (Dec. 16, 2014) Researchers found the bacteria Klebsiella pneumoniae Carbapenemase in the water where the 2016 Olympics is supposed to take place. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:

More Coverage


Assessing California Earthquake Forecasts

Sep. 28, 2011 Earthquake prediction remains an imperfect science, but the best forecasts are about 10 times more accurate than a random prediction, according to a new ... read more

Strange & Offbeat Stories


Plants & Animals

Earth & Climate

Fossils & Ruins

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins