Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Creating Lung Cancer Risk Models For Specific Populations Refines Prediction

Date:
September 9, 2008
Source:
University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center
Summary:
Lung cancer risk prediction models are enhanced by taking into account risk factors by race and by measuring DNA repair capacity, according to epidemiologists.

Lung cancer risk prediction models are enhanced by taking into account risk factors by race and by measuring DNA repair capacity, according to research teams led by epidemiologists at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in two complementary papers appearing in the September issue of Cancer Prevention Research.

In the first study to focus on African-Americans, researchers found unique results based on increased exposure to certain risks. Based upon these findings, a specific model was developed to further refine the predictability of lung cancer in this population, according to lead author Carol Etzel, Ph.D., assistant professor in M. D. Anderson's Department of Epidemiology.

"African-Americans have similar risk factors for lung cancer as Caucasians, but the risks tend to be higher, and there is a stronger association with occupational exposures, such as wood dust and asbestos, than we have previously observed for whites," said Etzel. "Additionally, we determined the risks associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) are substantially higher than those noted in Caucasian subjects." COPDs, such as emphysema, raise a person's risk for lung cancer.

The study focused on those who self-reported as being black, and who represented approximately 14 percent of the overall study population. Study participants were recruited from M. D. Anderson Cancer Center and the Michael E. DeBakey VA Medical Center in Houston, TX. The control population, which was matched on the basis of age, sex and ethnicity, was recruited from Houston-area community centers and the Kelsey-Seybold Clinic, Houston's largest multi-specialty physician group practice. The African-American model was validated on an independent sample of African-American lung cancer cases and controls from two lung cancer studies being conducted in metropolitan Detroit.

"The challenge for us is to try to predict which of the United States' estimated 45 million current smokers and 46 million former smokers are at highest risk for developing lung cancer. Accurate prediction models may identify subgroups of these smokers who will benefit most from intensive screening programs and behavioral interventions," said Margaret Spitz, M.D., senior author and professor in M. D. Anderson's Department of Epidemiology.

The previously published Spitz lung cancer risk prediction model was based solely on lung cancer cases and controls among Caucasian subjects. Internal and external validation results showed the predictive power of the new African-American group-specific model to approach 79 percent, versus 66 percent for the original model.

"The predictive abilities are much improved with the new model and underscore the need for further race-specific modeling," said Spitz.

Expanding the Original Model

In the second paper, Spitz, the lead author, demonstrates that the predictive capability of her original model which incorporates clinical and risk factor data, was improved by adding two measures of DNA repair capacity.

The original Spitz model measured the following smoking intensity variables: Pack-years of smoking for current smokers and the age at which former smokers stopped smoking, physician-diagnosis of hay fever and emphysema, exposure to asbestos and dusts, and family history of cancer.

Suboptimal DNA repair capacity is associated with up to twofold statistically significant increased lung cancer risks. By adding these measures of repair capacity into expanded former smokers and current smokers models' equations, the sensitivity of each were statistically significantly better than the baseline models. However, the sensitivity of these expanded models remains modest and further refining is planned by incorporating data on nutrition and common genetic variation into even more sophisticated models.

According to the authors, "While the uniform advice for any smoker is immediate cessation, reliable prediction models could be helpful in the context of both screening and prevention trials."

The data for both studies were derived from a long-term 17-year study of the epidemiology of lung cancer at M. D. Anderson funded by the National Cancer Institute and led by Spitz. This research was supported by grants from the National Cancer Institute, and the Flight Attendant Medical Research Institute.

Participants of both studies were defined as "never smokers," or those who had smoked fewer than 100 cigarettes in their lifetimes; "former smokers," who had not smoked in more than a year; and "current smokers," which included individuals who had quit smoking within the past 12 months. Smokers were also asked to report their use of mentholated cigarettes, and former smokers the age at which they stopped smoking.

Lung Cancer Facts

Over 85 percent of all lung cancers occur in current or former smokers. Lung cancer causes more deaths than any other cancer, killing more than 160,000 Americans annually and millions worldwide. According to the American Cancer Society, the incidence of lung cancer is close to 40 percent higher in African-American men, the death rate approximately 30 percent higher and the five-year survival rate is 12 percent versus 15 percent for whites.

Spitz added, "The team is working on a similar model targeting the Hispanic population. Our goal is to ultimately develop an interactive risk assessment tool, much like the Gail breast cancer risk assessment tool, to make lung cancer prediction in various populations accessible for treating physicians."


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal References:

  1. Etzel et al. Development and Validation of a Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model for African-Americans. Cancer Prevention Research, 2008; 1 (4): 255 DOI: 10.1158/1940-6207.CAPR-08-0082
  2. Spitz et al. An Expanded Risk Prediction Model for Lung Cancer. Cancer Prevention Research, 2008; 1 (4): 250 DOI: 10.1158/1940-6207.CAPR-08-0060

Cite This Page:

University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. "Creating Lung Cancer Risk Models For Specific Populations Refines Prediction." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 9 September 2008. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080905153849.htm>.
University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. (2008, September 9). Creating Lung Cancer Risk Models For Specific Populations Refines Prediction. ScienceDaily. Retrieved August 21, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080905153849.htm
University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. "Creating Lung Cancer Risk Models For Specific Populations Refines Prediction." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080905153849.htm (accessed August 21, 2014).

Share This




More Health & Medicine News

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Drug Used To Treat 'Ebola's Cousin' Shows Promise

Drug Used To Treat 'Ebola's Cousin' Shows Promise

Newsy (Aug. 21, 2014) An experimental drug used to treat Marburg virus in rhesus monkeys could give new insight into a similar treatment for Ebola. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Cadavers, a Teen, and a Medical School Dream

Cadavers, a Teen, and a Medical School Dream

AP (Aug. 21, 2014) Contains graphic content. He's only 17. But Johntrell Bowles has wanted to be a doctor from a young age, despite the odds against him. He was recently the youngest participant in a cadaver program at the Indiana University NW medical school. (Aug. 21) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Possible Ebola Patient in Isolation at California Hospital

Possible Ebola Patient in Isolation at California Hospital

Reuters - US Online Video (Aug. 20, 2014) A patient who may have been exposed to the Ebola virus is in isolation at the Kaiser Permanente South Sacramento Medical Center. Linda So reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Reasons Why Teen Birth Rates Are At An All-Time Low

Reasons Why Teen Birth Rates Are At An All-Time Low

Newsy (Aug. 20, 2014) A CDC report says birth rates among teenagers have been declining for decades, reaching a new low in 2013. We look at several popular explanations. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins