Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Pandemic toolkit offers flu with a view

Date:
January 4, 2010
Source:
DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Summary:
As communities brace for rising wintertime influenza cases, scientists are developing a mathematical and visual analytic toolkit to help health officials quickly analyze pandemics and craft better response strategies.

The Pandemic Influenza Planning Tool allows health officials to carefully assess and more accurately predict how disease might evolve when various mitigation strategies are applied.
Credit: Image courtesy of DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

As communities brace for rising wintertime influenza cases, scientists are developing a mathematical and visual analytic toolkit to help health officials quickly analyze pandemics and craft better response strategies.

Scientists at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory have created a Pandemic Influenza Planning Tool to model the spread of a disease through various age groups and geographic populations. It also allows decision-makers to carefully assess the benefit of their decisions for different scenarios in advance.

"No single approach provides an optimal strategy when battling the spread of a pandemic," said Robert Brigantic, PNNL operations research scientist, "But, the use of this tool can allow health officials to more accurately predict how a disease might evolve when various mitigation strategies are applied."

These results could be valuable in developing an aggressive preventive strategy and deciding how best to use limited resources.

Brigantic's tool allows officials to easily evaluate potential response options by manipulating modeling parameters and running different simulations. For instance, officials could assess closing schools to decrease disease spread, initiate preventative media campaigns, or evaluate distributing antiviral medications to easily evaluate potential mitigation approaches.

In late September, PNNL demonstrated an early prototype of the tool during a Walla Walla County, Wash., Pandemic Influenza emergency exercise. Officials simulated an H1N1 Swine Flu outbreak and used the tool to predict resource needs and shortfalls, such as the loss of critical staff and lack of hospital beds.

"The tool illustrated how essential services can fail when critical employees became ill," said Gay Ernst, director of emergency management in Walla Walla County. "Visualizing possible disease progression enables us to consider how many critical personnel may be unavailable at one time and plan accordingly."

To help users also understand and visualize the effects of potential scenarios, PNNL teamed with Purdue University to add a visual analytic element to the toolkit called PanViz. It allows decision makers to visually track a simulation of spreading influenza on a video monitor. Users can toggle on and off various decision measures and visually see and examine the impact of those modifications and how they may alter the spread of the outbreak over time across counties in a state.

PNNL has demonstrated the planning tool during its development to Washington State Public Health as well as emergency officials in Los Angeles County and in Indiana. Researchers are improving the system's infectious disease modeling capabilities by making underlying algorithms more sophisticated and precise. Including more mitigation strategies and incorporating input from public health and emergency management experts is a priority as developers enhance the model.

This work was originally developed under a $50,000 subcontract with Purdue University to create the Pandemic Influenza Planning Tool for use by Indiana state as part of its pandemic influenza planning exercises. If additional funding is secured, Brigantic hopes to expand the model capabilities to see how additional social-distancing actions, such as telecommuting, cancelling social events and imposing quarantines might influence the virtual spread of a pandemic. He also envisions incorporating additional social modeling and behavioral responses.

Brigantic and his team are also conducting related modeling and simulation analysis for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to establish effective and efficient screening of passengers arriving on international flights for pandemic influenza.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. "Pandemic toolkit offers flu with a view." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 4 January 2010. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091214152025.htm>.
DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. (2010, January 4). Pandemic toolkit offers flu with a view. ScienceDaily. Retrieved July 22, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091214152025.htm
DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. "Pandemic toolkit offers flu with a view." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091214152025.htm (accessed July 22, 2014).

Share This




More Health & Medicine News

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Gilead's $1000-a-Pill Drug Could Cure Hep C in HIV-Positive People

Gilead's $1000-a-Pill Drug Could Cure Hep C in HIV-Positive People

TheStreet (July 21, 2014) New research shows Gilead Science's drug Sovaldi helps in curing hepatitis C in those who suffer from HIV. In a medical study, the combination of Gilead's Hep C drug with anti-viral drug Ribavirin cured 76% of HIV-positive patients suffering from the most common hepatitis C strain. Hepatitis C and related complications have been a top cause of death in HIV-positive patients. Typical medication used to treat the disease, including interferon proteins, tended to react badly with HIV drugs. However, Sovaldi's %1,000-a-pill price tag could limit the number of patients able to access the treatment. TheStreet's Keris Lahiff reports from New York. Video provided by TheStreet
Powered by NewsLook.com
$23.6 Billion Awarded To Widow In Smoking Lawsuit

$23.6 Billion Awarded To Widow In Smoking Lawsuit

Newsy (July 20, 2014) Cynthia Robinson claims R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company hid the health and addiction risks of its products, leading to the death of her husband in 1996. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Tooth Plaque Provides Insight Into Diets Of Ancient People

Tooth Plaque Provides Insight Into Diets Of Ancient People

Newsy (July 19, 2014) Research on plaque from ancient teeth shows that our prehistoric ancestor's had a detailed understanding of plants long before developing agriculture. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Contaminated Water Kills 3 Babies in South African Town

Contaminated Water Kills 3 Babies in South African Town

AFP (July 18, 2014) Contaminated water in South Africa's northwestern town of Bloemhof kills three babies and hospitalises over 500 people. The incident highlights growing fears over water safety in South Africa. Duration: 02:22 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins