Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Russian gas to fall short of European demand, physicist predicts

Date:
February 18, 2010
Source:
Uppsala University
Summary:
The political ramifications of dependence on Russian natural gas are a current, lively topic of debate within the European Union. One issue that deserves more attention is whether sufficient gas will even be available for export to the EU. So argues one Swedish physicist who provides an assessment of future Norwegian and Russian gas export levels.

The political ramifications of dependence on Russian natural gas are a current, lively topic of debate within the EU. One issue that deserves more attention is whether sufficient gas will even be available for export to the EU. So argues physicist Bengt Söderbergh, whose dissertation provides an assessment of future Norwegian and Russian gas export levels. He is scheduled to defend his dissertation on 19 February at Uppsala University.

Related Articles


According to forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA), production of natural gas within the EU will decline from the 2006 level of 216 billion cubic metres per year (Gm3/year) to 90 Gm3/year by 2030, even as demand for gas is expected to rise significantly. The need to import gas will accordingly increase by up to 90 per cent during the period. Russia and Norway are currently the most significant suppliers of gas to the EU. Their combined share of the EU's gas imports during 2006 was 62 per cent.

Bengt Söderbergh's dissertation aims at an evaluation of future levels of Norwegian and Russian gas exports to the EU. Norwegian and Russian gas production scenarios were developed based on modelling of production from individual gas fields. The combined production from the largest fields -- the so-called "giant fields" -- was forecast.

EU energy security is significantly dependent on production from a relatively small number of Norwegian and Russian fields. Almost all of Norway's production derives from 18 large fields, 9 of which are classifiable as giant fields. Essentially all of Russia's production derives from 36 giant fields.

The findings show that there is little potential for an increase in the level of Norwegian gas exports to the EU. All of the scenarios studied indicate that Norwegian gas production will be in decline by 2030, by which year Norwegian gas deliveries to the EU via pipeline may have fallen by as much as 20 per cent from today's level. A study of potential production from Russian giant fields indicates a maximum increase of 45 per cent in the level of Russian gas exports to the EU by 2030. In absolute terms, this corresponds to approximately 70 Gm3/year. A number of additional factors may entail significantly lower actual export capacity.

"The single most important determinant of whether the current level of Russian gas exports to the EU will increase will be whether gas fields on the Arctic Yamal Peninsula enter production in 2012 and thereafter," says Bengt Söderbergh. "Many of the Russian fields yet to enter production are located in Eastern Siberia and in the area of Sakhalin in the Russian Far East. Surplus production from these regions will in all probability be exported to Asian markets, primarily the Chinese market."

The results and assumptions presented in the dissertation are inconsistent with a 90 per cent increase, over the 2006 level, in imports by the EU. Dependence on pipeline-borne gas imports is not the only matter with vital implications for EU energy security. The geopolitical ramifications of dependence on importation of Russian gas via pipeline are currently a lively topic of debate within the EU.

From a European energy security perspective the dependence of pipeline gas imports is not the only energy security problem to be in the limelight, the question of physical availability of overall gas supplies deserves serious attention as well.

"There is a lively discussion regarding the geopolitical implications of European dependence on imported gas from Russia. However, the results of this thesis suggest that when assessing the future gas demand of the EU it would be of equal importance to be concerned about diminishing availability of global gas supplies, says Bengt Söderbergh."


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Uppsala University. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

Uppsala University. "Russian gas to fall short of European demand, physicist predicts." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 18 February 2010. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100218102445.htm>.
Uppsala University. (2010, February 18). Russian gas to fall short of European demand, physicist predicts. ScienceDaily. Retrieved January 25, 2015 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100218102445.htm
Uppsala University. "Russian gas to fall short of European demand, physicist predicts." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100218102445.htm (accessed January 25, 2015).

Share This


More From ScienceDaily



More Matter & Energy News

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

NTSB: Missing Planes' Black Boxes Should Transmit Wirelessly

NTSB: Missing Planes' Black Boxes Should Transmit Wirelessly

Newsy (Jan. 23, 2015) — In light of high-profile plane disappearances in the past year, the NTSB has called for changes to make finding missing aircraft easier. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Iconic Metal Toy Meccano Goes Robotic

Iconic Metal Toy Meccano Goes Robotic

Reuters - Innovations Video Online (Jan. 22, 2015) — Classic children&apos;s toy Meccano has gone digital, releasing a programmable kit robot that can be controlled by voice recognition. The toymakers say Meccanoid G15 KS is easy to use and is compatible with existing Meccano pieces. Jim Drury reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
The VueXL From VX1 Immersive Smartphone Headset!

The VueXL From VX1 Immersive Smartphone Headset!

Rumble (Jan. 22, 2015) — The VueXL from VX1 is a product that you install your smartphone in and with the magic of magnification lenses, enlarges your smartphones screen so that it&apos;s like looking at a big screen TV. Check it out! Video provided by Rumble
Powered by NewsLook.com
Analysis: NTSB Wants Better Black Boxes

Analysis: NTSB Wants Better Black Boxes

AP (Jan. 22, 2015) — NTSB investigators recommended Thursday that long-distance passenger planes carry improved technology to allow them to be found more easily in a crash, as well as include enhanced cockpit recording technology. (Jan. 22) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
 
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:  

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories

 

Space & Time

Matter & Energy

Computers & Math

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:  

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile iPhone Android Web
Follow Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins