An article just published in the journal Osteoporosis International introduces a validated new model that can be used to describe the current and future burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in different national settings.
The model, published by researchers from the UK on behalf of the International Osteoporosis Foundation's Committee of Scientific Advisors, was developed and validated using Swedish data. It can be used to forecast the incidence and prevalence of fractures not only by age and calendar year, but also by BMD category. It provides a high degree of accuracy, as the predictions of fracture rates for all fracture sites were within a 5% margin of error compared with published data when averaged across ages.
The incidence of osteoporotic fractures increases markedly with age and, given the rapidly ageing populations in many countries of the world, there is a real need to predict the future burden of fractures. For example in Europe, where the proportion of the population aged 65 or over will increase from 17% in 2008 to 30% in 2060, a serious increase in the number of osteoporotic fractures is expected. Even more marked increases are projected in other regions of the world, particularly in Asia where a 7.6-fold increase in elderly people is predicted between 2000 and 2050.
The new model provides a potentially powerful tool to inform health policy decision making. Early diagnosis and effective fracture prevention strategies could translate into huge cost savings for health care systems around the world.
- A. Gauthier, J. A. Kanis, M. Martin, J. Compston, F. Borgstrφm, C. Cooper, E. McCloskey. Development and validation of a disease model for postmenopausal osteoporosis. Osteoporosis International, 2010; DOI: 10.1007/s00198-010-1358-3
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