Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Spain: Mathematical model forecasts fewer workplace accidents in 2011 and 2012

Date:
December 21, 2010
Source:
FECYT - Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology
Summary:
The number of workplace accidents in Spain will fall progressively over 2011 and 2012, according to the predictions made using a mathematical model. The biggest drop will be in the number of accidents that take place during travel between people's homes and places of work.

The number of workplace accidents in Spain will fall progressively over 2011 and 2012, according to the predictions made by a mathematical model developed by researchers from the University of Castilla-La Mancha. The biggest drop will be in the number of accidents that take place during travel between people's homes and places of work.

Related Articles


Two researchers from the University of Castilla-La Mancha have combined mathematical models (univariate and multivariate) to generate a new one that makes it possible to predict the evolution of workplace accidents at varying levels of seriousness: slight, serious and fatal, including those that take place in itinere (between home and work). The details have been published in the journal Reliability Engineering & System Safety.

Over recent weeks, the authors have updated the model for the 2010-2012 period. Analysis of the results shows a decline in the number of accidents in nearly all the series evaluated. According to the model, there will only be an increase in accidents where no absence from work is requested (rising from 804,526 in 2010 to 809,985 in 2012).

Between these two years, fatal accidents will go from 584 to 490, serious ones from 4,970 to 4,476, and slight ones, which are the most numerous (around 550,000 per year), will also undergo a small decline.

"The decreasing trend is sharper among serious and fatal in itinere accidents, which will decline by 66.12% and 75,50% respectively by the end of 2012," Marνa del Carmen Carnero and Diego Josι Pedregal, the authors of the study, said.

The researchers say that these positive results "are a reflection of the actions taken to reduce the number of traffic accidents, as well as to involve the media in consolidating and developing the culture of prevention."

Spanish Occupational Safety and Health Strategy

According to the authors, these forecasts can be used to show the short-term efficiency of the Spanish Occupational Safety and Health Strategy (2007-2012). The objectives of this programme are to reduce the occupational accident rate to bring Spain in line with average levels for the European Union and continuously improve the levels of health and safety at work.

For years such as 2008, the model does not show this strategy to have been effective yet, but it is for the 2010-2012 period. "However, the positive data must be taken with caution, because these must be compensated by the decline in employment in the country in sectors which commonly hire temporary workers, immigrants or subcontractors, such as the construction sector," warn Carnero and Pedregal.

To prove that the good results are being maintained "we need a new evaluation of the Strategy when there are real data on the number of accidents in 2011 and 2012, and particularly when the activity level in all sectors returns to average stable levels once the current economic crisis is over," the researchers conclude.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by FECYT - Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Marνa Carmen Carnero, Diego Josι Pedregal. Modelling and forecasting occupational accidents of different severity levels in Spain. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2010; 95 (11): 1134 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.07.003

Cite This Page:

FECYT - Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology. "Spain: Mathematical model forecasts fewer workplace accidents in 2011 and 2012." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 21 December 2010. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101221101836.htm>.
FECYT - Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology. (2010, December 21). Spain: Mathematical model forecasts fewer workplace accidents in 2011 and 2012. ScienceDaily. Retrieved November 23, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101221101836.htm
FECYT - Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology. "Spain: Mathematical model forecasts fewer workplace accidents in 2011 and 2012." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101221101836.htm (accessed November 23, 2014).

Share This


More From ScienceDaily



More Health & Medicine News

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Ebola-Hit Sierra Leone's Late Cocoa Leaves Bitter Taste

Ebola-Hit Sierra Leone's Late Cocoa Leaves Bitter Taste

AFP (Nov. 23, 2014) — The arable district of Kenema in Sierra Leone -- at the centre of the Ebola outbreak in May -- has been under quarantine for three months as the cocoa harvest comes in. Duration: 01:32 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Don't Fall For Flu Shot Myths

Don't Fall For Flu Shot Myths

Newsy (Nov. 23, 2014) — Misconceptions abound when it comes to your annual flu shot. Medical experts say most people older than 6 months should get the shot. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
WFP: Ebola Risks Heightened Among Women Throughout Africa

WFP: Ebola Risks Heightened Among Women Throughout Africa

AFP (Nov. 21, 2014) — Having children has always been a frightening prospect in Sierra Leone, the world's most dangerous place to give birth, but Ebola has presented an alarming new threat for expectant mothers. Duration: 00:37 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Could Your Genes Be The Reason You're Single?

Could Your Genes Be The Reason You're Single?

Newsy (Nov. 21, 2014) — Researchers in Beijing discovered a gene called 5-HTA1, and carriers are reportedly 20 percent more likely to be single. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
 
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:  

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories

 

Health & Medicine

Mind & Brain

Living & Well

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:  

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile iPhone Android Web
Follow Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins