Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

EU could cut emissions by 40 percent at moderate cost

Date:
January 16, 2014
Source:
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Summary:
The costs of achieving a more ambitious EU climate target are estimated to be moderate. Upscaling greenhouse-gas emissions reduction from the current 20 percent by 2020 to 40 percent by 2030 would be likely to cost less than an additional 0.7 percent of economic activity.

EU could cut emissions by 40 percent at moderate cost: This is a key finding from an international multi-model analysis by the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF28) and comes at a crucial time, as the European Commission is set to announce next week its plans whether to scale up its efforts on emissions reduction in the next decade. However, beyond 2040, according to the scientists the costs risk to rise substantially. Technological innovation would be needed to counter this.

"In the next two decades, it is possible to achieve the transformation using existing technologies," says Brigitte Knopf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who led the study conducted by a dozen research groups. Thereafter, however, energy-economy system models project different costs. Some simulations show a steep increase after 2040, while others show only a linear increase. One determining factor is the degree to which new technologies can replace old ones. This indicates that technological progress is needed to keep costs in check. "A clear price signal has to be set today, for instance in the European Emissions Trading System," says Knopf. "It would provide an incentive for innovation that would prevent energy systems from being locked into long-lasting investments in CO2-intensive technologies, such as coal-fired power plants."

Current CO2 reductions fall short of achieving long-term climate targets

"The current 20 percent emission reductions by 2020 could fall short of achieving the long-term climate targets set by the EU," explains Enrica De Cian of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy. "Short-term emissions reductions of at least 40 percent by 2030 are necessary to eventually meet the long-term target of an 80 percent reduction by 2050 aspired by the EU." The reference year is 1990. The models in the study would actually suggest an even more ambitious short-term target than those 40 percent that are currently under debate.

The analysis confirms the core findings of the much debated EU Energy Roadmap, which details the EU climate and energy strategy. "By setting targets for 2030, the EU would signal its willingness to contribute to the global climate mitigation effort," De Cian points out. "And a positive reaction of other countries to this signal could foster technological change and innovation within Europe as well."

Many options to choose from -- wind power could expand sevenfold

Options explored by the study to reach the EU climate target range from renewable energies to nuclear energy and energy-efficiency increases. "There's a wide choice for decision-makers, depending on their preferences, so that's a good thing," says Detlef van Vuuren of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University. "Still, most model calculations optimizing the change of the electricity system project energy from biomass to expand threefold, and from wind even sevenfold by 2050." This would have to be reflected in a potential future EU target on renewable energy.

One remarkable finding is that Europe could do without relying on the much debated and as yet unproven technology of sequestering CO2 from power plant emissions and injecting it into the ground. This is a new result compared to the Roadmap study. Nonetheless, 'Carbon Capture and Storage' (CCS) would be needed to achieve an affordable worldwide transformation.

Robust multi-model assessment of EU Roadmap

The new study is the most systematic comparison of computer simulations of the European energy-economy system to date. It includes the PRIMES model, which had attracted criticism in the past for being the only one used by the European Commission for previous assessments of the energy system. "The more comprehensive approach now allows for a more robust assessment of technologies, costs and infrastructure requirements," John Weyant says, who leads the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum EMF. This is detailed in the Special Issue of Climate Change Economics. "It shows some very promising opportunities to avoid the risks of unabated climate change."


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. BRIGITTE KNOPF, YEN-HENG HENRY CHEN, ENRICA DE CIAN, HANNAH FΦRSTER, AMIT KANUDIA, IOANNA KARKATSOULI, ILKKA KEPPO, TIINA KOLJONEN, KATJA SCHUMACHER, DETLEF P. VAN VUUREN. BEYOND 2020 — STRATEGIES AND COSTS FOR TRANSFORMING THE EUROPEAN ENERGY SYSTEM. Climate Change Economics, 2013; 04 (supp01): 1340001 DOI: 10.1142/S2010007813400010

Cite This Page:

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). "EU could cut emissions by 40 percent at moderate cost." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 16 January 2014. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140116113311.htm>.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). (2014, January 16). EU could cut emissions by 40 percent at moderate cost. ScienceDaily. Retrieved July 31, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140116113311.htm
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). "EU could cut emissions by 40 percent at moderate cost." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140116113311.htm (accessed July 31, 2014).

Share This




More Earth & Climate News

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Visitors Feel Part of the Pack at Wolf Preserve

Visitors Feel Part of the Pack at Wolf Preserve

AP (July 31, 2014) — Seacrest Wolf Preserve on the northern Florida panhandle allows more than 10,000 visitors each year to get up close and personal with Arctic and British Columbian Wolves. (July 31) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Big Waves In Arctic Ocean Threaten Polar Ice

Big Waves In Arctic Ocean Threaten Polar Ice

Newsy (July 30, 2014) — Big waves in parts of the Arctic Ocean are unprecedented, mainly because they used to be covered in ice. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Raw: Thousands Flocking to German Crop Circle

Raw: Thousands Flocking to German Crop Circle

AP (July 30, 2014) — Thousands of people are trekking to a Bavarian farmer's field to check out a mysterious set of crop circles. (July 30) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Weather Kills 2K A Year, But Storms Aren't The Main Offender

Weather Kills 2K A Year, But Storms Aren't The Main Offender

Newsy (July 30, 2014) — Health officials say 2,000 deaths occur each year in the U.S. due to weather, but it's excessive heat and cold that claim the most lives. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
 
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:  

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

    Environment News

    Technology News



    Save/Print:
    Share:  

    Free Subscriptions


    Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

    Get Social & Mobile


    Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

    Have Feedback?


    Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
    Mobile iPhone Android Web
    Follow Facebook Twitter Google+
    Subscribe RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
    Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins