Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Tight Races In Major League Baseball's Eastern Divisions, Mathematician Predicts

Date:
April 7, 2009
Source:
New Jersey Institute of Technology
Summary:
The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles Angels should make the playoffs in the American League in 2009 with most other teams lagging well behind. The National League should see another very tight race in the Eastern Division as has occurred in recent years. However, this year it looks like there may be a three-way tie among the defending World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies, the Atlanta Braves, and the New York Mets.

The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles Angels should make the playoffs in the American League (AL) in 2009 with most other teams lagging well behind. The National League (NL) should see another very tight race in the Eastern Division as has occurred in recent years.

However, this year it looks like there may be a three-way tie among the defending World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies, the Atlanta Braves, and the New York Mets,. Two of these teams should make the playoffs (one as Eastern Division champion and the other as NL wild card team) while the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers should handily win their divisions, said Bruce Bukiet.

Bukiet, an associate professor of mathematical sciences and associate dean of the College of Science and Liberal Arts at NJIT, once again provides the number of games each Major League Baseball team should win in 2009 based on the mathematical model he developed in 2000.

The contest for primacy in the AL East should go down to the wire with the Yankees winning 99 games to the Red Sox 97. With the two best records expected in the Major Leagues this season, both teams should make it to the post-season, one as AL East winner and the other as the AL wild card team. The defending AL champion Tampa Bay Rays should take third place with 91 wins. In the AL Central Division, the Indians should win 88 games to the Minnesota Twins 83, while the Angels should win AL West by a whopping 21 games with 92 wins while the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics win 71 each.

In the National League East, Bukiet is concerned that for the third year in a row his favorite team, the Mets, will miss the playoffs on the last day of the season. "The model has been quite accurate with the Mets over past few years with the Mets slightly underperforming and the Phillies slightly over performing. If that repeats itself, it would spell another season of final game heartbreak to Mets fans."

In the NL Central Division, Bukiet's model calls for the Chicago Cubs to win 97 games, 12 more than the second-place St. Louis Cardinals. The Pittsburgh Pirates should win just 60 games, the least in the Major Leagues.

"In the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers should win 91 games, while the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks tie for second place, 8 games back," said Bukiet.

His expected wins for the AL are the following.

  • AL East: Yankees – 99; Red Sox – 97; Rays – 91; Blue Jays – 83; Orioles – 68.
  • AL Central: Indians – 88; Twins – 83; White Sox – 79; Tigers – 78; Royals - 71.
  • AL West: Angels – 92; Rangers – 71; Athletics – 71; Mariners – 65.

For the NL, he projects the following.

  • NL East: Braves – 88; Phillies – 88; Mets – 88; Marlins – 73; Nationals – 67;
  • NL Central: Cubs – 97; Cards – 85; Brewers – 82; Astros – 80; Reds – 75; Pirates – 60;
  • NL West: Dodgers – 91; Diamondbacks – 83; Rockies – 83; Giants – 78; Padres – 76.

"These results are merely a guide as to how teams ought to perform. There are many unknowns, especially trades, injuries and how rookies will perform," said Bukiet. "Over the years, the predictions have been about as good as those of the so-called experts. It demonstrates how useful math can be in understanding so many aspects of the world around us."

Operations Research published Bukiet's mathematical model on which his predictions are based. His model computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage. Bukiet has appeared on CNN Headline News, the Jerusalem Post and Fox Radio's Roger Hedgecock Show, KOGO, San Diego and others. Interview Bukiet in person at 501 Cullimore Hall, by telephone (973-596-8392) or email .edu.

Bukiet, an avid Mets fan, has used this mathematical model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games during the baseball season. His picks are posted (for academic purposes only) on his website (http://www.egrandslam.com). These picks have produced positive results for six of the eight years he has posted them.

Bukiet's main areas of research have involved mathematical modeling of physical phenomena, including detonation waves, healing of wounds, and dynamics of human balance. He has also applied mathematical modeling to sports and gambling, in particular for understanding baseball and cricket. He is currently working on National Science Foundation projects to train math and science teachers for high-need schools and to bring computational research projects into Newark High Schools. Bukiet won the 2008 Mathematical Association of American-NJ Section Distinguished Teaching Award and received the NJIT Excellence in Teaching Award in 2006 for Outstanding Work. Bukiet received his PhD in mathematics from the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by New Jersey Institute of Technology. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

New Jersey Institute of Technology. "Tight Races In Major League Baseball's Eastern Divisions, Mathematician Predicts." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 7 April 2009. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090402143742.htm>.
New Jersey Institute of Technology. (2009, April 7). Tight Races In Major League Baseball's Eastern Divisions, Mathematician Predicts. ScienceDaily. Retrieved July 29, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090402143742.htm
New Jersey Institute of Technology. "Tight Races In Major League Baseball's Eastern Divisions, Mathematician Predicts." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090402143742.htm (accessed July 29, 2014).

Share This




More Computers & Math News

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Teen's Phone Ignites Under Her Pillow; How Real Is The Risk?

Teen's Phone Ignites Under Her Pillow; How Real Is The Risk?

Newsy (July 28, 2014) A Texas teen's Samsung phone apparently ignited while she slept, but what was the real problem here? Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Google's Next Frontier: The Human Body

Google's Next Frontier: The Human Body

Newsy (July 27, 2014) Google is collecting genetic and molecular information to paint a picture of the perfectly healthy human. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Cellphone Unlocking Bill Clears U.S. House, Heads to Obama

Cellphone Unlocking Bill Clears U.S. House, Heads to Obama

Reuters - US Online Video (July 27, 2014) Congress gets rid of pesky law that made it illegal to "unlock" mobile phones without permission, giving consumers the option to use the same phone on a competitor's wireless network. Mana Rabiee reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Congress OKs Unlocking Phones From Carriers

Congress OKs Unlocking Phones From Carriers

Newsy (July 26, 2014) A bill legalizing "unlocking," or untethering a phone from its default wireless carrier, has passed Congress and is expected to be signed into law. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins