Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Using 61 years of tropical storm data, scientists uncover landfall threat probabilities

Date:
September 9, 2011
Source:
University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science
Summary:
Scientists have found an intriguing relationship between hurricane tracks and climate variability using data from the Atlantic gathered between 1950-2010, unlocking some noteworthy results.

In a study published in the Journal of Climate, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science scientists have found an intriguing relationship between hurricane tracks and climate variability. The team studied data from the Atlantic gathered between 1950-2010, unlocking some noteworthy results and trends.
Credit: Angela Colbert

Scientists at the University of Miami's (UM's) Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science have found an intriguing relationship between hurricane tracks and climate variability.

Related Articles


Angela Colbert, a graduate student in Meteorology & Physical Oceanography, with the collaboration of Professor and Associate Dean for Professional Masters, Dr. Brian Soden, studied data from the Atlantic gathered between 1950-2010, unlocking some noteworthy results, which appear in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate.

Storms were classified into three different categories based on their projected paths: straight moving, recurving landfall, or recurving ocean. Storms that develop farther south and/or west in the tropical Atlantic are more likely to become straight moving storms that ultimately affect the Gulf Coast of the United States and the Western Caribbean. However, storms that form more north or east have a greater chance to threaten the Eastern seaboard or simply recurve into the open ocean.

Perhaps the most significant finding was that El Niño seasons are not only associated with fewer storms overall, but those storms that do form are less likely to make landfall due to changes in the atmospheric steering currents.

"In a typical El Niño season, we found that storms have a higher probability of curving back out into the ocean as opposed to threatening to make landfall along the East Coast of the US due to a change in the circulation across the Atlantic. This is important for not only weather forecasting, but insurance companies, who can use these findings when determining seasonal and yearly quote rates," said Colbert.

In contrast La Niña seasons, when the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface is cooler than normal, are associated with both greater numbers of storms as well as an increased likelihood that they will make landfall.

"Growing up in Florida I have always been fascinated not only with hurricanes, but with severe weather in general. I wanted to better understand tropical cyclones and why they sometimes seem to follow certain tracks throughout a season or longer, so we can better prepare for them," she added.

Colbert is a graduate of Palm Harbor University High School and received her Bachelor's degree in Mathematics Education from the University of Central Florida and her Master's degree in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography from the University of Miami. She is a member of the American Meteorological Society and American Geophysical Union, and serves as President of UM's Marine Science Graduate Student Organization.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Angela J. Colbert, Brian J. Soden. Climatological Variations in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks. Journal of Climate, 2011; 110727121922004 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00034.1

Cite This Page:

University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science. "Using 61 years of tropical storm data, scientists uncover landfall threat probabilities." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 9 September 2011. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110909111525.htm>.
University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science. (2011, September 9). Using 61 years of tropical storm data, scientists uncover landfall threat probabilities. ScienceDaily. Retrieved February 1, 2015 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110909111525.htm
University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science. "Using 61 years of tropical storm data, scientists uncover landfall threat probabilities." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110909111525.htm (accessed February 1, 2015).

Share This


More From ScienceDaily



More Earth & Climate News

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Raw: Rare Clouds Fill Grand Canyon

Raw: Rare Clouds Fill Grand Canyon

AP (Jan. 29, 2015) — For the second time in two months, a rare weather phenomenon filled the Grand Canyon with thick clouds just below the rim on Wednesday. (Jan. 29) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Senate Passes Bill for Keystone XL Pipeline

Senate Passes Bill for Keystone XL Pipeline

AP (Jan. 29, 2015) — The Republican-controlled Senate has passed a bipartisan bill approving construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline. (Jan. 29) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
"Cloud Inversion" In Grand Canyon

"Cloud Inversion" In Grand Canyon

Reuters - US Online Video (Jan. 29, 2015) — Time lapse video captures a blanket of clouds amassing in the Grand Canyon -- the result of a rare meteorological process called "cloud inversion." Rough Cut (no reporter narration). Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Why Researchers Say We Should Cut Back On Biofuels

Why Researchers Say We Should Cut Back On Biofuels

Newsy (Jan. 29, 2015) — Biofuels aren&apos;t the best alternative to fossil fuels, according to a new report. In fact, they&apos;re quite a bad one. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
 
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:  

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories

 

Plants & Animals

Earth & Climate

Fossils & Ruins

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:  

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile iPhone Android Web
Follow Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins