About 86 percent of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and 59 percentof the natural gas output are being disrupted by Hurricane Katrina,according to a new prediction model developed by a University ofCentral Florida researcher and his Georgia colleague.
On their Web site, http://hurricane.methaz.org,UCF statistics professor Mark Johnson and Chuck Watson, founder ofKinetic Analysis Corp. of Savannah, Ga., also projected that 50.1percent of oil output and 28.5 percent of natural gas output will bedisrupted for more than 10 days.
Johnson and Watson calculated projected damage based on windspeeds, the severity of waves and other anticipated effects of thestorm. The data reflect every active oil and gas lease in the Gulf ofMexico.
While the oil and gas production portion of the Web site isstill in the experimental stage, it already is gaining attention frombloggers and economic- and investment-oriented Web sites.
The site also tracks storms worldwide with hourly updates andlists estimates of how much damage specific hurricanes are likely tocause based on their tracks and property records. The site usesproperty databases to estimate damage to residential, commercial andother types of structures in each county and city. Projected lossesalso take into account economic losses, such as businesses and themeparks having to shut down.
Johnson, an expert in the statistical aspects of hurricanemodeling and forecasting, and Watson, whose specialties are geophysicsand numerical modeling, have worked together on severalhurricane-related research projects during the past 10 years.
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