Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Rita and Beyond: Research Model Advances Hurricane Intensity Prediction

Date:
September 22, 2005
Source:
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Summary:
An advanced research weather model run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is following Hurricane Rita to give scientists a taste of how forecast models of the future may predict hurricane track, intensity, and important rain and wind features.

NCAR's Advanced Research WRF projects an outlook for the development of hurricanes approaching the southeastern United States once or twice daily. This image displays a prediction of Hurricane Rita's status by 2:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Savings Time on Wednesday, September 21, based on observed conditions reported at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, September 20. The high resolution (4 kilometers, or 2.5 miles) provides a detailed look at rainbands, intensity, and other important features.
Credit: Image courtesy NCAR ARW

BOULDER -- An advanced research weather model run by the NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is following Hurricane Rita togive scientists a taste of how well forecast models of the future maypredict hurricane track, intensity, and important rain and windfeatures. Tap into the model's daily storm projection at www.ucar.edu.

Related Articles


With its high-resolution grid of data points just four kilometers(about 2.5 miles) apart, the model can project the location offine-scale rain bands and eyewall structures 48 hours into the future.

It's these storm features that determine where the greatestdamage from both rain and wind might occur, says NCAR weather expertChris Davis. Current operational forecast models use a coarserresolution and must approximate the cloud processes affecting intensityand precipitation.

Known as ARW, the computer model is NCAR's research version ofthe Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), a joint effort byuniversity and government scientists.

"ARW intensity predictions are very encouraging," says Davis."Five years ago, accurate intensity predictions weren't even possible."

The model captured in detail the collapse of HurricaneKatrina's eyewall at landfall and the shift of precipitation to thenorth side of the storm. Had the eyewall's structure remained coherent,the winds would have been far more devastating. However, an eyewallalways weakens at landfall, says Davis.

Teams supporting the Department of Energy and Department ofHomeland Security are using real-time ARW data in their damage models.The researchers are testing how computer simulations of a particularhurricane's most destructive features might improve damage modelprojections and lead to better warnings of floods, power outages, androad blockage. This year's test cases have included hurricanes Katrina,Ophelia, and now Rita.

Meanwhile, a hurricane experiment in Florida is investigatingthe interactions between Hurricane Rita's rain bands and its eyewall.NCAR's Wen-Chau Lee is flying through the storm aboard a Naval ResearchLaboratory P-3 aircraft to gather radar data from inside the bands. Theobservations from the Hurricane Rainband and Intensity ChangeExperiment (RAINEX) will help scientists better understand the impactof the rain bands on the storm's maximum winds.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by National Center for Atmospheric Research. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

National Center for Atmospheric Research. "Rita and Beyond: Research Model Advances Hurricane Intensity Prediction." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 22 September 2005. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/09/050922013931.htm>.
National Center for Atmospheric Research. (2005, September 22). Rita and Beyond: Research Model Advances Hurricane Intensity Prediction. ScienceDaily. Retrieved February 1, 2015 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/09/050922013931.htm
National Center for Atmospheric Research. "Rita and Beyond: Research Model Advances Hurricane Intensity Prediction." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/09/050922013931.htm (accessed February 1, 2015).

Share This


More From ScienceDaily



More Earth & Climate News

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Hikers Rescued After Fall from Oregon Mountain

Hikers Rescued After Fall from Oregon Mountain

AP (Feb. 1, 2015) Two climbers who were hurt in a fall on Mount Hood are now being treated for their injuries. Rescue officials say they were airlifted off the mountain Saturday afternoon by an Oregon National Guard helicopter. (Feb. 2) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
NASA's SMAP Satellite Will Measure Wet Dirt From Space

NASA's SMAP Satellite Will Measure Wet Dirt From Space

Newsy (Feb. 1, 2015) NASA&apos;s Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite mission will collect data to help forecast crop productivity, floods, droughts and wildfires. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Raw: Rare Clouds Fill Grand Canyon

Raw: Rare Clouds Fill Grand Canyon

AP (Jan. 29, 2015) For the second time in two months, a rare weather phenomenon filled the Grand Canyon with thick clouds just below the rim on Wednesday. (Jan. 29) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Senate Passes Bill for Keystone XL Pipeline

Senate Passes Bill for Keystone XL Pipeline

AP (Jan. 29, 2015) The Republican-controlled Senate has passed a bipartisan bill approving construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline. (Jan. 29) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories


Plants & Animals

Earth & Climate

Fossils & Ruins

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins