Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Mathematical Model Predicts Cholera Outbreaks

Date:
February 19, 2007
Source:
University of Michigan
Summary:
A mathematical model of disease cycles developed at the University of Michigan shows promise for predicting cholera outbreaks.

A mathematical model of disease cycles developed at the University of Michigan shows promise for predicting cholera outbreaks.

Speaking in a symposium titled "New Vistas in the Mathematics of Ecology and Evolution" at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Francisco, theoretical ecologist Mercedes Pascual will discuss how models that she and coworkers have developed can aid short-term forecasting of infectious diseases, such as cholera, and inform decisions about vaccination and other disease-prevention strategies.

In research done over the past seven years, Pascual and colleagues have found evidence that a phenomenon known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a major source of climate variability from year to year, influences cycles of cholera in Bangladesh. They also showed that the coupling between climate variability and cholera cycles has become stronger in recent decades.

Now, Pascual is examining the feasibility of using a model developed during that work as an early warning system.

"The question we asked was whether, using data from 1966 to 2000, we could have predicted cholera outbreaks over the past five years," said Pascual, an associate professor of ecology and evolutionary biology. "We also wanted to know whether incorporating ENSO into the model would improve the accuracy of our predictions." The challenge for the model was particularly interesting because the past five years were atypical, with fewer cholera cases than usual and no strong climate anomalies. However, the model performed well, Pascual said.

"Our results showed that for the past five years, we would have done fairly well predicting cholera cases one year ahead, and that the model that uses ENSO makes prediction even more accurate."

Cholera, a serious health problem in many parts of the world, results from a bacterial infection. The bacterium takes up residence in the intestines, causing vomiting and diarrhea, which can lead to severe dehydration and death if patients are not promptly treated.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University of Michigan. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

University of Michigan. "Mathematical Model Predicts Cholera Outbreaks." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 19 February 2007. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/02/070218135349.htm>.
University of Michigan. (2007, February 19). Mathematical Model Predicts Cholera Outbreaks. ScienceDaily. Retrieved July 29, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/02/070218135349.htm
University of Michigan. "Mathematical Model Predicts Cholera Outbreaks." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/02/070218135349.htm (accessed July 29, 2014).

Share This




More Computers & Math News

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Teen's Phone Ignites Under Her Pillow; How Real Is The Risk?

Teen's Phone Ignites Under Her Pillow; How Real Is The Risk?

Newsy (July 28, 2014) A Texas teen's Samsung phone apparently ignited while she slept, but what was the real problem here? Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Google's Next Frontier: The Human Body

Google's Next Frontier: The Human Body

Newsy (July 27, 2014) Google is collecting genetic and molecular information to paint a picture of the perfectly healthy human. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Cellphone Unlocking Bill Clears U.S. House, Heads to Obama

Cellphone Unlocking Bill Clears U.S. House, Heads to Obama

Reuters - US Online Video (July 27, 2014) Congress gets rid of pesky law that made it illegal to "unlock" mobile phones without permission, giving consumers the option to use the same phone on a competitor's wireless network. Mana Rabiee reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Congress OKs Unlocking Phones From Carriers

Congress OKs Unlocking Phones From Carriers

Newsy (July 26, 2014) A bill legalizing "unlocking," or untethering a phone from its default wireless carrier, has passed Congress and is expected to be signed into law. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins