Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Small Earthquakes are Useful Predictor of Large Ones

Date:
December 5, 2007
Source:
Seismological Society of America
Summary:
Conventional wisdom in seismology says slip on faults that rupture during the largest continental strike-slip earthquakes is generally limited to the seismogenic layer, the upper 15 km or so of the earth's crust to which aftershocks extend and background seismicity is limited. That idea when coupled with theory predicts that the amount of slip on faults in large earthquakes should not continue to increase once the dimensions of a rupture have surpassed about 15 km. The prediction is not supported by observation.

Conventional wisdom in seismology says slip on faults that rupture during the largest continental strike-slip earthquakes is generally limited to the seismogenic layer, the upper 15 km or so of the earth's crust to which aftershocks extend and background seismicity is limited.

Related Articles


That idea when coupled with theory predicts that the amount of slip on faults in large earthquakes should not continue to increase once the dimensions of a rupture have surpassed about 15 km. The prediction is not supported by observation. Slip does continue to increase as the length of earthquake ruptures increase. The contradiction between the prediction and observation has long been recognized to suggest that the physics of large earthquakes is different than small.

This interpretation has been unsettling because it lends uncertainty to the idea that observations from small earthquakes, which are far more abundant, can be scaled upward to make predictions about much less frequent but far more damaging large earthquakes that will occur in the future, a common practice in seismology.

New work by seismologists Geoffrey C. P. King and Steven G. Wesnousky shows how the conundrum may be resolved if slip during the largest earthquakes is allowed to extend modestly below the seismogenic layer and that the base of the seismogenic layer is marked by a transition to stable sliding rather than viscous relaxation.

Geoffrey C. P. King is the Director of the Laboratoire Tectonique at the Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique's Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris. Steven G. Wesnousky is Director of the Center for Neotectonic Studies and Department of Geological Sciences University of Nevada-Reno.

This research was published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Seismological Society of America. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

Seismological Society of America. "Small Earthquakes are Useful Predictor of Large Ones." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 5 December 2007. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071204154741.htm>.
Seismological Society of America. (2007, December 5). Small Earthquakes are Useful Predictor of Large Ones. ScienceDaily. Retrieved January 29, 2015 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071204154741.htm
Seismological Society of America. "Small Earthquakes are Useful Predictor of Large Ones." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071204154741.htm (accessed January 29, 2015).

Share This


More From ScienceDaily



More Earth & Climate News

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Scientists Say Earliest Snakes Lived Alongside The Dinosaurs

Scientists Say Earliest Snakes Lived Alongside The Dinosaurs

Newsy (Jan. 28, 2015) Wrongly categorized as lizard fossils, snake fossils now show the reptile could have developed earlier than we thought — 70 million years earlier. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Time Lapse: Sculptures Created from 30 Tons of Snow

Time Lapse: Sculptures Created from 30 Tons of Snow

Rumble (Jan. 28, 2015) Students in North Finland use 30 tons of snow and one ton of ice to build a massive photography display and sculpture installation. Five days of work condensed into a one-minute time lapse! Video provided by Rumble
Powered by NewsLook.com
Aquaponics Turn Suburban Industrial Park Into Farmland: Hume

Aquaponics Turn Suburban Industrial Park Into Farmland: Hume

The Toronto Star (Jan. 27, 2015) Ancient techniques of growing greens with fish and water are well ahead of Toronto bylaws. Video provided by The Toronto Star
Powered by NewsLook.com
Madagascar Locust Plague Could Mean Famine For Millions

Madagascar Locust Plague Could Mean Famine For Millions

Newsy (Jan. 27, 2015) The Food and Agriculture Organization says millions could face famine in Madagascar without more funding to finish locust eradication efforts. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories


Plants & Animals

Earth & Climate

Fossils & Ruins

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins