Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Novel Mathematical Model Predicts New Wave Of Drug-resistant HIV Infections In San Francisco

Date:
February 20, 2008
Source:
University of California - Los Angeles
Summary:
A mathematical model shows that a new wave of drug-resistant HIV is rising among among men in San Francisco who have sex with men and that this trend will continue over the next few years, according to a new study. At the same time, the evolution of drug-resistant HIV may have actually reduced the severity of the city's epidemic, saving many men from becoming infected.

A mathematical model shows that a new wave of drug-resistant HIV is rising among among men in San Francisco who have sex with men and that this trend will continue over the next few years, according to a new study from the UCLA AIDS Institute. At the same time, the evolution of drug-resistant HIV may have actually reduced the severity of the city's epidemic, saving many men from becoming infected.

The model and its results were just unveiled by UCLA biomathematics professor Sally Blower, director of the Biomedical Modeling Center at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, during a session on drug-resistant diseases at the annual American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in Boston.

"Our amplification cascade model has been validated by our reconstructions and can now be used to design novel and effective health policies for controlling single-, dual- and triple-class resistant strains of HIV in both resource-rich and resource-constrained countries," said Blower, who is also a member of the UCLA AIDS Institute.

The model enabled the researchers to reconstruct the epidemic's past and predict its future by calculating the evolution of several classes of drug-resistant HIV strains in San Francisco.

The research relied on a novel multi-strain mathematical model called the Amplification Cascade Model to examine the rise between 1987 and 2007 of HIV strains resistant to the three major classes of drugs -- nucleosides (NRTIs), nonnucleosides (NNRTIs) and protease inhibitors (PIs). The model took into account three interacting processes -- transmitted, acquired and amplified resistance -- the last of which refers to amplification of drug-resistant strains in HIV-positive people due to the repeated use of multiple-treatment drug regimens.

The study tracked uninfected individuals; newly infected people in the primary stage of infection; chronically infected individuals who were not yet eligible for treatment; chronically infected people who remained untreated, though eligible for it; and patients under treatment.

Researchers found complex waves of rising and falling single-, dual- and triple-class drug-resistant HIV strains over 20 years, with more complex patterns continuing to evolve.

The model predicts that resistance to NRTIs will decline substantially and PI resistance will fall slightly through 2012, and that resistance to NNRTIs will rise over the next five years and then begin falling.

Although strains with dual- and triple-class resistance will be transmitted, they will be far less potent than wild-type HIV strains -- those strains that have not developed drug-resistant mutations and remain sensitive to all classes of drugs.

Most surprising of all, the evolution of drug-resistant HIV strains has substantially reduced the severity of the San Francisco AIDS epidemic because the strains that have emerged have become less infectious than the wild-type strains.

Other collaborators on this study were Erin Bodine of the University of Tennessee, Jim Kahn of UC San Francisco, Justin T. Okano of UCLA and Robert Smith of the University of Ottawa.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases funded this research.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University of California - Los Angeles. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

University of California - Los Angeles. "Novel Mathematical Model Predicts New Wave Of Drug-resistant HIV Infections In San Francisco." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 20 February 2008. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080217102117.htm>.
University of California - Los Angeles. (2008, February 20). Novel Mathematical Model Predicts New Wave Of Drug-resistant HIV Infections In San Francisco. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 24, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080217102117.htm
University of California - Los Angeles. "Novel Mathematical Model Predicts New Wave Of Drug-resistant HIV Infections In San Francisco." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080217102117.htm (accessed April 24, 2014).

Share This



More Health & Medicine News

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Big Pharma Braces for M&A Wave

Big Pharma Braces for M&A Wave

Reuters - Business Video Online (Apr. 22, 2014) Big pharma on the move as Novartis boss, Joe Jimenez, tells Reuters about plans to transform his company via an asset exchange with GSK, and Astra Zeneca shares surge on speculation that Pfizer is looking for a takeover. Joanna Partridge reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Study Says Most Crime Not Linked To Mental Illness

Study Says Most Crime Not Linked To Mental Illness

Newsy (Apr. 22, 2014) A new study finds most crimes committed by people with mental illness are not caused by symptoms of their illness or disorder. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Hagel Gets Preview of New High-Tech Projects

Hagel Gets Preview of New High-Tech Projects

AP (Apr. 22, 2014) Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel is given hands-on demonstrations Tuesday of some of the newest research from DARPA _ the military's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency program. (April 22) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
How Smaller Plates And Cutlery Could Make You Feel Fuller

How Smaller Plates And Cutlery Could Make You Feel Fuller

Newsy (Apr. 22, 2014) NBC's "Today" conducted an experiment to see if changing the size of plates and utensils affects the amount individuals eat. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins