Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Novel Mathematical Model Predicts New Wave Of Drug-resistant HIV Infections In San Francisco

Date:
February 20, 2008
Source:
University of California - Los Angeles
Summary:
A mathematical model shows that a new wave of drug-resistant HIV is rising among among men in San Francisco who have sex with men and that this trend will continue over the next few years, according to a new study. At the same time, the evolution of drug-resistant HIV may have actually reduced the severity of the city's epidemic, saving many men from becoming infected.

A mathematical model shows that a new wave of drug-resistant HIV is rising among among men in San Francisco who have sex with men and that this trend will continue over the next few years, according to a new study from the UCLA AIDS Institute. At the same time, the evolution of drug-resistant HIV may have actually reduced the severity of the city's epidemic, saving many men from becoming infected.

The model and its results were just unveiled by UCLA biomathematics professor Sally Blower, director of the Biomedical Modeling Center at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, during a session on drug-resistant diseases at the annual American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in Boston.

"Our amplification cascade model has been validated by our reconstructions and can now be used to design novel and effective health policies for controlling single-, dual- and triple-class resistant strains of HIV in both resource-rich and resource-constrained countries," said Blower, who is also a member of the UCLA AIDS Institute.

The model enabled the researchers to reconstruct the epidemic's past and predict its future by calculating the evolution of several classes of drug-resistant HIV strains in San Francisco.

The research relied on a novel multi-strain mathematical model called the Amplification Cascade Model to examine the rise between 1987 and 2007 of HIV strains resistant to the three major classes of drugs -- nucleosides (NRTIs), nonnucleosides (NNRTIs) and protease inhibitors (PIs). The model took into account three interacting processes -- transmitted, acquired and amplified resistance -- the last of which refers to amplification of drug-resistant strains in HIV-positive people due to the repeated use of multiple-treatment drug regimens.

The study tracked uninfected individuals; newly infected people in the primary stage of infection; chronically infected individuals who were not yet eligible for treatment; chronically infected people who remained untreated, though eligible for it; and patients under treatment.

Researchers found complex waves of rising and falling single-, dual- and triple-class drug-resistant HIV strains over 20 years, with more complex patterns continuing to evolve.

The model predicts that resistance to NRTIs will decline substantially and PI resistance will fall slightly through 2012, and that resistance to NNRTIs will rise over the next five years and then begin falling.

Although strains with dual- and triple-class resistance will be transmitted, they will be far less potent than wild-type HIV strains -- those strains that have not developed drug-resistant mutations and remain sensitive to all classes of drugs.

Most surprising of all, the evolution of drug-resistant HIV strains has substantially reduced the severity of the San Francisco AIDS epidemic because the strains that have emerged have become less infectious than the wild-type strains.

Other collaborators on this study were Erin Bodine of the University of Tennessee, Jim Kahn of UC San Francisco, Justin T. Okano of UCLA and Robert Smith of the University of Ottawa.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases funded this research.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University of California - Los Angeles. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

University of California - Los Angeles. "Novel Mathematical Model Predicts New Wave Of Drug-resistant HIV Infections In San Francisco." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 20 February 2008. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080217102117.htm>.
University of California - Los Angeles. (2008, February 20). Novel Mathematical Model Predicts New Wave Of Drug-resistant HIV Infections In San Francisco. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 18, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080217102117.htm
University of California - Los Angeles. "Novel Mathematical Model Predicts New Wave Of Drug-resistant HIV Infections In San Francisco." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080217102117.htm (accessed April 18, 2014).

Share This



More Health & Medicine News

Friday, April 18, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Scientists Create Stem Cells From Adult Skin Cells

Scientists Create Stem Cells From Adult Skin Cells

Newsy (Apr. 17, 2014) The breakthrough could mean a cure for some serious diseases and even the possibility of human cloning, but it's all still a way off. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Obama: 8 Million Healthcare Signups

Obama: 8 Million Healthcare Signups

AP (Apr. 17, 2014) President Barack Obama gave a briefing Thursday announcing 8 million people have signed up under the Affordable Care Act. He blasted continued Republican efforts to repeal the law. (April 17) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Is Apathy A Sign Of A Shrinking Brain?

Is Apathy A Sign Of A Shrinking Brain?

Newsy (Apr. 17, 2014) A recent study links apathetic feelings to a smaller brain. Researchers say the results indicate a need for apathy screening for at-risk seniors. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Could Even Casual Marijuana Use Alter Your Brain?

Could Even Casual Marijuana Use Alter Your Brain?

Newsy (Apr. 16, 2014) A new study conducted by researchers at Northwestern and Harvard suggests even casual marijuana use can alter your brain. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins