Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Novel Method Predicts Impact Of A Covert Anthrax Release

Date:
April 13, 2009
Source:
Public Library of Science
Summary:
A new statistical method that can estimate the origin and time of an aerosolized release of the pathogen causing anthrax, following detection of the first few cases has been developed. The method predicts where the most critically affected areas will be following the release of this highly pathogenic agent, which may enable preventative treatment of individuals at risk and protection from the disease.

A new statistical method that can estimate the origin and time of an aerosolized release of the pathogen causing anthrax, following detection of the first few cases has been developed by researchers from the Medical Research Council (MRC) Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial College London in collaboration with the Health Protection Agency's Microbial Risk Assessment group.

Related Articles


The method predicts where the most critically affected areas will be following the release of this highly pathogenic agent, which may enable preventative treatment of individuals at risk and protection from the disease.

Previously published methods can estimate the date and scale of anthrax release but not the source location or geographic extent of human exposure. The new method uses information about the first people infected, including when they started to experience symptoms of infection and where they live and work, combined with recent weather information, such as wind direction.

Dr Judith Legrand, lead author of the study from the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, said: "We have devised a new way to forecast the future course of a potential outbreak and the people and geographic areas likely to be worst affected."

Anthrax has the potential to cause a large number of deaths in the event of a covert, open air release. If such a release were to occur, it is critical for public health decision makers to evaluate its extent and the potential impact on the population and then to identify the people most at risk of infection as soon as possible.

Dr Judith Legrand added: "It is critical to treat people as soon as possible after exposure to anthrax. While forecasts based on small numbers of early cases are less reliable than those obtained later in an outbreak, we show that treating individuals based on early estimates is still likely to save lives overall."


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Public Library of Science. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Legrand et al. Estimating the Location and Spatial Extent of a Covert Anthrax Release. PLoS Computational Biology, 2009; 5 (1): e1000356 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000356

Cite This Page:

Public Library of Science. "Novel Method Predicts Impact Of A Covert Anthrax Release." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 13 April 2009. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090410075112.htm>.
Public Library of Science. (2009, April 13). Novel Method Predicts Impact Of A Covert Anthrax Release. ScienceDaily. Retrieved November 28, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090410075112.htm
Public Library of Science. "Novel Method Predicts Impact Of A Covert Anthrax Release." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090410075112.htm (accessed November 28, 2014).

Share This


More From ScienceDaily



More Health & Medicine News

Friday, November 28, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Rural India's Low-Cost Sanitary Pad Revolution

Rural India's Low-Cost Sanitary Pad Revolution

AFP (Nov. 28, 2014) — One man hopes his invention -– a machine that produces cheap sanitary pads –- will help empower Indian women. Duration: 01:51 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Research on Bats Could Help Develop Drugs Against Ebola

Research on Bats Could Help Develop Drugs Against Ebola

AFP (Nov. 28, 2014) — In Africa's only biosafety level 4 laboratory, scientists have been carrying out experiments on bats to understand how virus like Ebola are being transmitted, and how some of them resist to it. Duration: 01:18 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com
WHO Says Male Ebola Survivors Should Abstain From Sex

WHO Says Male Ebola Survivors Should Abstain From Sex

Newsy (Nov. 28, 2014) — WHO cites four studies that say Ebola can still be detected in semen up to 82 days after the onset of symptoms. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Ebola Leaves Orphans Alone in Sierra Leone

Ebola Leaves Orphans Alone in Sierra Leone

AFP (Nov. 27, 2014) — The Ebola epidemic sweeping Sierra Leone is having a profound effect on the country's children, many of whom have been left without any family members to support them. Duration: 01:02 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
 
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:  

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories

 

Health & Medicine

Mind & Brain

Living & Well

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:  

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile iPhone Android Web
Follow Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins