Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Improving crisis prediction, disaster control and damage reduction

Date:
September 15, 2010
Source:
American Institute of Physics
Summary:
Earthquakes, homicide surges, magnetic storms, and the US economic recession are all kindred of a sort, according to a new theoretical framework. Researchers in the United States and Russia contend that these four types of events share a precursory development pattern that can be detected and tracked, possibly improving crisis prediction.

Some disasters and crises are related to each other by more than just the common negative social value we assign to them. For example, earthquakes, homicide surges, magnetic storms, and the U.S. economic recession are all kindred of a sort, according to a theoretical framework presented in the journal Chaos, which is published by the American Institute of Physics.

The researchers who developed this framework contend that these four types of events share a precursory development pattern -- a specific change of scale in indicators that can be tracked. They suggest that detecting this pattern could improve crisis prediction.

"Knowing the patterns of extreme events development is pivotal both for predictive understanding of these events and for enhancing disaster preparedness," says investigator Vladimir Keilis-Borok of the University of California, Los Angeles.

Adds his colleague Alexander Soloviev of the Russian Academy of Sciences: "A premonitory pattern common to four complex systems of different nature is probably a manifestation of a certain general feature of complex systems."

To mathematicians who probe complexity, extreme events grow out of the dynamic interplay of indicators representing a complex process. A system may give off signals that deep shift is afoot. A change of scaling is a "premonitory pattern" indicating a coming extreme event. This manifests as a shift in pattern -- large events that were once infrequent begin to occur closer and closer together (similar to the way that the tempo of "Jaws" soundtrack increases in anticipation of a shark attack).

That systems as diverse as an earthquake, surge in homicides, economic recession and magnetic storm can share a developmental pattern is not as surprising as it may at first seem. Systems are deep as well as dynamic: shift happens -- and can, to a large extent, be predicted to save and improve lives.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by American Institute of Physics. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Keilis-Borok et al. Variations of trends of indicators describing complex systems: Change of scaling precursory to extreme events. Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2010; 20 (3): 033104 DOI: 10.1063/1.3463438

Cite This Page:

American Institute of Physics. "Improving crisis prediction, disaster control and damage reduction." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 15 September 2010. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100914095926.htm>.
American Institute of Physics. (2010, September 15). Improving crisis prediction, disaster control and damage reduction. ScienceDaily. Retrieved September 21, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100914095926.htm
American Institute of Physics. "Improving crisis prediction, disaster control and damage reduction." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100914095926.htm (accessed September 21, 2014).

Share This



More Health & Medicine News

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Sierra Leone's Nationwide Ebola Curfew Underway

Sierra Leone's Nationwide Ebola Curfew Underway

Newsy (Sep. 20, 2014) Sierra Leone is locked down as aid workers and volunteers look for new cases of Ebola. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Changes Found In Brain After One Dose Of Antidepressants

Changes Found In Brain After One Dose Of Antidepressants

Newsy (Sep. 19, 2014) A study suggest antidepressants can kick in much sooner than previously thought. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Could Grief Affect The Immune Systems Of Senior Citizens?

Could Grief Affect The Immune Systems Of Senior Citizens?

Newsy (Sep. 19, 2014) The study found elderly people are much more likely to become susceptible to infection than younger adults going though a similar situation. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Jury Delivers Verdict in Salmonella Trial

Jury Delivers Verdict in Salmonella Trial

AP (Sep. 19, 2014) A federal jury has convicted three people in connection with an outbreak of salmonella poisoning five years ago that sickened hundreds of people and was linked to a number of deaths. (Sept. 19) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins