Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

More accurate tropical cyclone prediction model developed

Date:
November 21, 2011
Source:
Naval Research Laboratory
Summary:
While the prediction of hurricane tracks have steadily improved over the last few decades, improvements in the predictions of storm intensity and structure have proven much more difficult.

Researchers at the Naval Research Laboratory Marine Meteorology Division (MMD), Monterey, Calif., have developed the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS-TC™) model, achieving a significant research milestone in predictions of tropical cyclone intensity and structure.

While the predictions of the paths or tracks of hurricanes, more generally referred to as tropical cyclones (TC), have steadily improved over the last few decades, improvements in the predictions of storm intensity have proven much more difficult.

"Over the past two years, the COAMPS-TC model has shown to be the most accurate emerging research model for predicting tropical cyclone intensity," said Dr. Jim Doyle, research meteorologist, NRL Monterey. "There is no better example of these difficult challenges than the intensity predictions for Hurricane Irene this past August."

Producing very accurate intensity predictions during a real-time experimental demonstration of Hurricane Irene, COAMPS-TC intensity errors were six knots on average for a series of three-day forecasts, a clear improvement over the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast and other operational models that ranged from 20-30 knots.

The successful predictions have demonstrated that Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models can outperform operational statistical-dynamic models that are based on climatology and previous behavior. It is further believed that NWP models, which explicitly predict the location, dynamics and intensity of a storm, will eventually provide the most promising approach to achieve accurate TC intensity and structure prediction.

Advancing further methodologies used for vortex initialization, data assimilation and representation of physical processes, COAMPS-TC is expected to become fully-operational in 2013 at the Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) in Monterey. Considerable advancements have been made to several components of the modeling system including the data assimilation of conventional and special TC synthetic observations, vortex initialization, and representation of key TC physical processes such as air-sea fluxes, clouds and convection.

The COAMPS-TC project will potentially signal a paradigm shift in TC forecasting and is already making a strong impression on the forecasting community. Focusing on the development and transition of a fully coupled air-ocean-wave prediction system, the COAMPS-TC model includes nonhydrostatic atmospheric dynamics, multiple nested moving grids that follow the center of the storm and improved boundary layer and cloud physical parameterizations.

COAMPS-TC was first tested in real-time in support of two field campaigns sponsored by the Office of Naval Research (ONR). The Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 (TCS-08) conducted as part of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in 2008 and the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) in 2010, both of which took place in the Western Pacific. Additionally, COAMPS-TC advancements and real-time demonstrations in the Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic have taken place through collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as part of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) -- a community-wide effort focused on improving operational hurricane prediction.

In June 2011, COAMPS-TC was one of nine worldwide winners of the inaugural High Performance Computing (HPC) Excellence Award presented at the ISC-11 International Supercomputing Conference in Hamburg, Germany -- an award presented annually to recognize noteworthy achievements by users of HPC technologies. As a result, COAMPS-TC was recognized for achieving 'a significantly improved model for tropical cyclone forecasting.' COAMPS-TC development benefited significantly from the Department of Defense HPC Modernization Program Office (HPCMO) computational assets at the Navy Defense Supercomputing Resource Center (DSRC) at Mississippi's Stennis Space Center.

Increasingly-sophisticated developmental versions of COAMPS-TC will continue to be demonstrated in real-time and in support of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Hurricane Center. A key additional enhancement will be a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere version in which the NRL Costal Ocean Model (NCOM) and the Wave Watch III (WWIII) will provide the ocean circulation and wave components, respectively.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Naval Research Laboratory. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

Naval Research Laboratory. "More accurate tropical cyclone prediction model developed." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 21 November 2011. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/11/111118133048.htm>.
Naval Research Laboratory. (2011, November 21). More accurate tropical cyclone prediction model developed. ScienceDaily. Retrieved July 26, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/11/111118133048.htm
Naval Research Laboratory. "More accurate tropical cyclone prediction model developed." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/11/111118133048.htm (accessed July 26, 2014).

Share This




More Earth & Climate News

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Virginia Governor Tours Tornado Aftermath

Virginia Governor Tours Tornado Aftermath

AP (July 25, 2014) Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe toured the Cherrystone Family Camping and RV Resort on the Chesapeake Bay today, a day after it was hit by a tornado. The storm claimed two lives and injured dozens of others. (July 25) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Europe's Highest Train Turns 80 in French Pyrenees

Europe's Highest Train Turns 80 in French Pyrenees

AFP (July 25, 2014) Europe's highest train, the little train of Artouste in the French Pyrenees, celebrates its 80th birthday. Duration: 01:05 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Goma Cheese Brings Whiff of New Hope to DRC

Goma Cheese Brings Whiff of New Hope to DRC

Reuters - Business Video Online (July 24, 2014) The eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo, mainly known for conflict and instability, is an unlikely place for the production of fine cheese. But a farm in the village of Masisi, in North Kivu is slowly transforming perceptions of the area. Known simply as Goma cheese, the Congolese version of Dutch gouda has gained popularity through out the region. Ciara Sutton reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Bill Gates: Health, Agriculture Key to Africa's Development

Bill Gates: Health, Agriculture Key to Africa's Development

AFP (July 24, 2014) Health and agriculture development are key if African countries are to overcome poverty and grow, US software billionaire Bill Gates said Thursday, as he received an honourary degree in Ethiopia. Duration: 00:36 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins