Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Mitigating disasters by hunting down Dragon Kings: Forecasting natural or economic disasters by identifying statistical anomalies

Date:
May 3, 2012
Source:
Springer Science+Business Media
Summary:
Professional Dragon King hunters are exploring the ways in which natural or economic disasters can be predicted by identifying statistical anomalies.

Professional Dragon King hunter Didier Sornette from the Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, together with his colleague Guy Ouillon, present the many facets of Dragon Kings in a review about to be published in EPJ ST. Their work will appear alongside nineteen other contributions exploring the ways in which this emerging field of statistical analysis could become further established.

Dragon Kings are events akin to catastrophes. They don't belong to the same power law regime as the more standard events. For example, they can be found in financial market bubbles ending in crashes, neuron-firing cascades leading to epileptic seizures, forest fires, the distribution of city sizes, insurance claims, and even in seemingly more mundane systems such as a stick balancing on a fingertip that eventually falls to one side or the other. Their name refers to the extreme behaviour of dragons stemming from their supernatural powers.

This review focuses on elucidating how Dragon Kings are created and can be detected. It also gives an overview of their empirical evidence in abnormal rainfall, hurricanes, and sudden events such as landslides and snow avalanches. The authors also outline the limitations of this sort of statistical analysis. For example, despite being sometimes interpreted as featuring characteristic events of Dragon Kings, great earthquakes may not be formally confirmed as such.

Finally, the authors share their views on the importance of devising prediction models that could become the basis for Dragon Kings simulators. These could be designed to help interpret the warning signs of complex systems evolving from their safe equilibrium into extreme events such as the subprime crisis, and to steer them into sustainability and ultimately avoid such crisis.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Springer Science+Business Media. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. D. Sornette, G. Ouillon. Dragon-kings: Mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence. The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 2012; 205 (1): 1 DOI: 10.1140/epjst/e2012-01559-5

Cite This Page:

Springer Science+Business Media. "Mitigating disasters by hunting down Dragon Kings: Forecasting natural or economic disasters by identifying statistical anomalies." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 3 May 2012. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120503104318.htm>.
Springer Science+Business Media. (2012, May 3). Mitigating disasters by hunting down Dragon Kings: Forecasting natural or economic disasters by identifying statistical anomalies. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 23, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120503104318.htm
Springer Science+Business Media. "Mitigating disasters by hunting down Dragon Kings: Forecasting natural or economic disasters by identifying statistical anomalies." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120503104318.htm (accessed April 23, 2014).

Share This



More Computers & Math News

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Monkeys Are Better At Math Than We Thought, Study Shows

Monkeys Are Better At Math Than We Thought, Study Shows

Newsy (Apr. 23, 2014) A Harvard University study suggests monkeys can use symbols to perform basic math calculations. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
High Court to Hear Dispute of TV Over Internet

High Court to Hear Dispute of TV Over Internet

AP (Apr. 22, 2014) The future of Aereo, an online service that provides over-the-air TV channels, hinges on a battle with broadcasters that goes before the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday. (April 22) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Aereo Takes on Broadcast TV Titans in Supreme Court Today

Aereo Takes on Broadcast TV Titans in Supreme Court Today

TheStreet (Apr. 22, 2014) Aereo heads to the Supreme Court today to fight for its right to stream broadcast TV over the Internet -- against broadcasters who say the start-up infringes upon copyright law. TheStreet Deputy Managing Editor Leon Lazaroff explains the importance of the case in the TV industry and details what the outcome of it could mean for broadcasters and for cloud storage services -- as Aereo allows its subscribers to not just watch live TV shows but also store content to a DVR in the cloud. Video provided by TheStreet
Powered by NewsLook.com
Lytro Introduces 'Illum,' A Professional Light-Field Camera

Lytro Introduces 'Illum,' A Professional Light-Field Camera

Newsy (Apr. 22, 2014) The light-field photography engineers at Lytro unveiled their next innovation: a professional DSLR-like camera called "Illum." Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile: iPhone Android Web
Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins