Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Hurricane Sandy: Power outage prediction model was accurate

Date:
November 1, 2012
Source:
Johns Hopkins University
Summary:
A team of researchers spent days tracking Hurricane Sandy's power outage potential as the storm made its deadly march up eastern seaboard. The researchers fed weather forecasts as well as real-time and historic hurricane data into a computer model to predict the total number of power outages. How'd they do? Their predictions were accurate overall, when compared with figures released by the federal government on actual outages.

A team of researchers at Johns Hopkins and Texas A&M universities spent days tracking Hurricane Sandy's power outage potential as the storm made its deadly march up eastern seaboard. Seth Guikema, an engineer at Johns Hopkins, and Steven Quiring, a geographer at Texas A&M, fed weather forecasts as well as real-time and historic hurricane data into a computer model to predict the total number of power outages. How'd they do?

Related Articles


Their predictions were accurate overall, when compared with figures released by the federal government on actual outages.

The researchers' initial outage estimate, released on Saturday, Oct. 27, was that approximately 10 million people could be without power due to Sandy. The final estimate, released on Monday, Oct. 30, was for 8 to 10 million people to lose power. The team has now conducted a preliminary comparison with outage totals reported by the Department of Energy Situation Report for Wednesday, Oct. 31, at 3 p.m. EDT. The DOE-reported peak outage total was approximately 8.5 million customers. The predicted fraction of people without power was within 8 percent of the DOE-reported percentage of customers without power for the states of New York, Rhode Island, Virginia, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania. The model predicted that a higher percentage of customers would be out in Maryland and Delaware than were actually without power, likely due to lower-than-expected wind speeds in these areas. The model predicted a lower percentage of customers out than were actually out in both Connecticut and New Jersey.

Guikema (pronounced Guy-keh-ma) and his team have developed a computer model built on outage data from 11 hurricanes to estimate the fraction of customers who will lose power, based on expected gust wind speed, expected duration of strong winds greater than 20 meters per second, and population density. Guikema's model may help power companies allocate resources by predicting how many people will be without power and where the most outages will take place, and it provides information that emergency managers can use to better prepare for storms. Guikema, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering, says the goal is to restore power faster and save customers money.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Johns Hopkins University. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

Johns Hopkins University. "Hurricane Sandy: Power outage prediction model was accurate." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 1 November 2012. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/11/121101153426.htm>.
Johns Hopkins University. (2012, November 1). Hurricane Sandy: Power outage prediction model was accurate. ScienceDaily. Retrieved November 28, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/11/121101153426.htm
Johns Hopkins University. "Hurricane Sandy: Power outage prediction model was accurate." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/11/121101153426.htm (accessed November 28, 2014).

Share This


More From ScienceDaily



More Earth & Climate News

Friday, November 28, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Scientists Find Invisible Space Shield Protecting Earth

Scientists Find Invisible Space Shield Protecting Earth

Newsy (Nov. 27, 2014) — An invisible barrier is keeping dangerous super fast electrons from interfering with our atmosphere, but scientists aren't entirely sure how. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Bolivian Recycling Initiative Turns Plastic Waste Into School Furniture

Bolivian Recycling Initiative Turns Plastic Waste Into School Furniture

Reuters - Innovations Video Online (Nov. 26, 2014) — Innovative recycling project in La Paz separates city waste and converts plastic garbage into school furniture made from 'plastiwood'. Tara Cleary reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Blu-Ray Discs Getting Second Run As Solar Panels

Blu-Ray Discs Getting Second Run As Solar Panels

Newsy (Nov. 26, 2014) — Researchers at Northwestern University are repurposing Blu-ray movies for better solar panel technology thanks to the discs' internal structures. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Antarctic Sea Ice Mystery Thickens... Literally

Antarctic Sea Ice Mystery Thickens... Literally

Newsy (Nov. 25, 2014) — Antarctic sea ice isn't only expanding, it's thicker than previously thought, and scientists aren't sure exactly why. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
 
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:  

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories

 

Plants & Animals

Earth & Climate

Fossils & Ruins

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:  

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile iPhone Android Web
Follow Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins