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More intense North Atlantic tropical storms likely in the future

Date:
November 30, 2012
Source:
University of Iowa
Summary:
Tropical storms that make their way into the North Atlantic, and possibly strike the East Coast of the United States, likely will become more intense during the rest of this century.

NOAA's GOES-13 satellite captured this visible image of Hurricane Sandy battering the U.S. East coast on Monday, Oct. 29 at 9:10 a.m. EDT. Sandy's center was about 310 miles south-southeast of New York City. Tropical Storm force winds are about 1,000 miles in diameter.
Credit: Image courtesy of NASA GOES Project.

Tropical storms that make their way into the North Atlantic, and possibly strike the East Coast of the United States, likely will become more intense during the rest of this century.

That's the prediction of one University of Iowa researcher and his colleague as published in an early online release in the Journal of Climate, the official publication of the American Meteorological Society.

The study is a compilation of results from some of the best available computer models of climate, according to lead author Gabriele Villarini, assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering and assistant research engineer at IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, and his colleague Gabriel Vecchi of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, N.J.

"We wanted to conduct the study because intense tropical cyclones can harm people and property," Villarini says. "The adverse and long-lasting influence of such storms recently was demonstrated by the damage Hurricane Sandy created along the East Coast."

The study itself examines projected changes in the North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) using output from 17 state-of-the-art global climate models and three different potential scenarios. The PDI is an index that integrates storm intensity, duration, and frequency.

"We found that the PDI is projected to increase in the 21st century in response to both greenhouse gas increases and reductions in particulate pollution over the Atlantic over the current century. By relating these results to other findings in a paper we published May 13, 2012 in the journal Nature Climate Change, we found that, while the number of storms is not projected to increase, their intensity is," he says.

"Moreover, our results indicate that as more carbon dioxide is emitted, the stronger the storms get, while scenarios with the most aggressive carbon dioxide mitigation show the smallest increase in intensity," he says.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University of Iowa. The original article was written by Gary Galluzzo. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Gabriele Villarini, Gabriel A. Vecchi. Projected Increases in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity from CMIP5 Models. Journal of Climate, 2012; 121116142835009 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00441.1

Cite This Page:

University of Iowa. "More intense North Atlantic tropical storms likely in the future." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 30 November 2012. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/11/121130151651.htm>.
University of Iowa. (2012, November 30). More intense North Atlantic tropical storms likely in the future. ScienceDaily. Retrieved September 2, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/11/121130151651.htm
University of Iowa. "More intense North Atlantic tropical storms likely in the future." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/11/121130151651.htm (accessed September 2, 2014).

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