Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Early detection of extreme financial events: Market crashes are anomalous features in financial data fractal landscape

Date:
June 16, 2014
Source:
Springer Science+Business Media
Summary:
Due to their previously discovered fractal nature, financial data patterns are self-similar when scaling up. New research shows that the most extreme events in financial data dynamics-reflected in very large price moves-are incompatible with multi-fractal scaling. Understanding the multi-fractal structure of financially sound markets could, ultimately, help in identifying structural signs of impending extreme events.

Analysing the adequation of financial data structure with its expected fractal scaling could help early detection of extreme financial events.

Related Articles


Due to their previously discovered fractal nature, financial data patterns are self-similar when scaling up. New research shows that the most extreme events in financial data dynamics-reflected in very large price moves-are incompatible with multi-fractal scaling. These findings have been published in The European Physical Journal B by physicist Elena Green from the National University of Ireland in Maynooth and colleagues. Understanding the multi-fractal structure of financially sound markets could, ultimately, help in identifying structural signs of impending extreme events.

The concept of multi-fractality-referring to the intertwining of many fractals-was first introduced in the context of physical turbulence studies. But it was subsequently applied to finance because of the two common features found in financial data, namely an underlying structure of heavy tails distribution and long-term dependence.

The authors performed multi-fractal testing on two sets of financial data: daily data from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index and minute-by-minute data from the Euro Stoxx 50 index. Where multi-fractal scaling occurs, the authors calculated the spectrum of fractal scaling factors using a method called Multi-fractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. This approach is used for determining the statistical self-affinity, or fractal nature, of a set of data, particularly relevant for data with long-memory characteristics.

The authors then performed further investigations of both data sets. This revealed that the temporal correlations within the data are a more significant source of the multi-fractal scaling than the distribution of the financial returns.

They also demonstrated that the extreme events which make up the heavy tails of the distribution of the Euro Stoxx 50 logarithmic graph of financial returns distort the scaling in the data set. This means that most extreme events adversely affect fractal scaling. Green and colleagues conclude that these results contrast with previous findings that extreme events contribute to multi-fractality.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Springer Science+Business Media. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Elena Green, William Hanan, Daniel Heffernan. The origins of multifractality in financial time series and the effect of extreme events. The European Physical Journal B, 2014; 87 (6) DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2014-50064-x

Cite This Page:

Springer Science+Business Media. "Early detection of extreme financial events: Market crashes are anomalous features in financial data fractal landscape." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 16 June 2014. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140616130718.htm>.
Springer Science+Business Media. (2014, June 16). Early detection of extreme financial events: Market crashes are anomalous features in financial data fractal landscape. ScienceDaily. Retrieved November 28, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140616130718.htm
Springer Science+Business Media. "Early detection of extreme financial events: Market crashes are anomalous features in financial data fractal landscape." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140616130718.htm (accessed November 28, 2014).

Share This


More From ScienceDaily



More Computers & Math News

Friday, November 28, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Recharge Your Phone in 30 Seconds? Israeli Firm Says It Can

Recharge Your Phone in 30 Seconds? Israeli Firm Says It Can

Reuters - Innovations Video Online (Nov. 28, 2014) — With consumers demanding more and more from their mobile devices, scientists in Israel and Singapore are developing super fast-charging batteries to power them. Amy Pollock has more. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
EU Pushes Google For Worldwide Right To Be Forgotten

EU Pushes Google For Worldwide Right To Be Forgotten

Newsy (Nov. 27, 2014) — Privacy regulators recommend Google expand its requested removals to apply to all its web domains. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Predictions Of Tablets' Demise Sound Familiar

Predictions Of Tablets' Demise Sound Familiar

Newsy (Nov. 26, 2014) — The tablet's days are numbered, at least according to a recent IDC report. The market-research firm paints a grim outlook for tablets. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Today's Prostheses Are More Capable Than Ever

Today's Prostheses Are More Capable Than Ever

Newsy (Nov. 26, 2014) — Advances in prosthetics are making replacement body parts stronger and more lifelike than they’ve ever been. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
 
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:  

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories

 

Space & Time

Matter & Energy

Computers & Math

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:  

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile iPhone Android Web
Follow Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins