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Enter At Your Own Risk -- But Check The Aftershocks Probabilities

Date:
October 11, 1999
Source:
United States Geological Survey
Summary:
When is a badly damaged, but stable building safe to enter after an earthquake? That is a question that safety-response and building-department officials have to answer in order to let occupants retrieve important possessions and business records, and to let contractors begin emergency repairs.

When is a badly damaged, but stable building safe to enter after an earthquake? That is a question that safety-response and building-department officials have to answer in order to let occupants retrieve important possessions and business records, and to let contractors begin emergency repairs. The obvious time to stay out of a building is immediately following the earthquake and until the aftershocks subside. But those aftershocks can last for days or weeks, asevidenced by recent large earthquakes in Turkey and Taiwan. And so, the dilemmafor earthquake survivors is knowing how soon they can go in and how long theymay safely stay in the structure in order to search for survivors and retrievepossessions.

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A recent "tech brief" prepared by the Applied Technology Council (ATC), incooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, offers guidelines for enteringearthquake-damaged buildings under emergency conditions. The guidelines arebased on engineering research by ATC members and aftershock research byscientists at the USGS in Menlo Park, Calif. These guidelines are linked to theATC post-earthquake building safety evaluation procedures referred to as ATC-20. These procedures are widely used by building departments to identify and "flag"unsafe buildings.

How soon a badly damaged but stable building can be entered and how long personsshould stay in it, depends on the degree of damage to the building, theprobability of and the size of aftershocks and the urgency of the need to enter,according to the brief's authors: Ronald P. Gallagher of Gallagher Associates;Chris D. Poland of Degenkolb Engineers; and Paul A. Reasenberg, of the USGS. Tables that summarize the degree of risk for structures, based on the amount ofinitial damage and the probabilities for aftershocks, are included in thereport, with color codes from yellow to red to denote the degrees of risk.

These ATC procedures, which are currently used by many jurisdictions inCalifornia, use color-coded tags on buildings as soon as safety inspectors andemergency-response personnel can make a preliminary survey of the buildings. Because such inspections cannot be done immediately on everystructure, following a large earthquake, ATC TechBrief 2, "EarthquakeAftershocks; Entering Damaged Buildilngs," offers the following guidelines aboutaftershocks and building safety:

  • The greater the magnitude of the earthquake and the stronger and longer theshaking, the greater the chances for strong and numerous aftershocks.

  • If damage was heavy in the mainshock, the site is more likely to experienceadditional damage from aftershocks.

  • A mainshock large enough to cause damage will probably be followed by severalfelt aftershocks within the first hour.

  • Aftershocks decrease in number and magnitude, with time. Generally speaking,the second day will have approximately half the number of aftershocks as thefirst day and one-tenth as many on the tenth day.

  • Except for life-saving rescues, entry into seriously damaged buildings shouldbe avoided during the first 24 hours following a mainshock.

  • If a damaged building must be entered following a strong mainshock, the timeinside should be kept at a minimum.

  • As a general rule, following a 6.5 or greater earthquake, three days shouldelapse before a damaged building should be occupied for up to eight hours at atime. Five additional days should elapse before the building is occupied for 24hours at a time.

Scientists at the USGS began forecasting aftershocks, following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Now, following an earthquake in California of magnitude 5 or larger, the USGS posts the probability of strong aftershocks on its Web site http://quake.wr.usgs.gov.

The ATC Tech Brief on "Earthquake Aftershocks--Entering Damaged Buildings" may be downloaded from ATC's Web site http://www.atcouncil.org, or copies may be ordered from: Applied Technology Council, 555 Twin Dolphin Drive #550, Redwood City, CA 94065.

###

As the nation's largest water, earth and biological science, and civilian mapping agency, the USGS works in cooperation with more than 2,000 organizations across the country to provide reliable, impartial scientific information to resource managers, planners, and other customers. This information is gathered in every state by USGS scientists to minimize the loss of life and property from natural disasters, contribute to the sound conservation and the economic and physical development of the nation's natural resources, and enhance the quality of life by monitoring water, biological, energy, and mineral resources.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by United States Geological Survey. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Cite This Page:

United States Geological Survey. "Enter At Your Own Risk -- But Check The Aftershocks Probabilities." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 11 October 1999. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/10/991011082238.htm>.
United States Geological Survey. (1999, October 11). Enter At Your Own Risk -- But Check The Aftershocks Probabilities. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 21, 2015 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/10/991011082238.htm
United States Geological Survey. "Enter At Your Own Risk -- But Check The Aftershocks Probabilities." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/10/991011082238.htm (accessed April 21, 2015).

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