Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Simple Method Devised To Predict Rises In Ebro River Level

Date:
March 31, 2009
Source:
Plataforma SINC
Summary:
A team of researchers in Spain has developed a new mathematical method to easily predict rises in the level of the Ebro River in Zaragoza based on water flow recorded in Castejón (Navarre). The system has a 97.5% success rate for 20-hour predictions.

Study area between Zaragoza and Castejón on the Ebro River.
Credit: CHE/Pedregal et al./SINC

A team of researchers from the University of Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM) has developed a new mathematical method to easily predict rises in the level of the Ebro River in Zaragoza based on water flow recorded in Castejón (Navarre). The system has a 97.5% success rate for 20-hour predictions.

“The objective of this work is to prevent flooding in Zaragoza, giving sufficient advance warning to minimise damage and improve the management of the river,” Diego J. Pedregal, a co-author of the study and a professor at the UCLM’s Higher Technical School of Industrial Engineering, tells SINC.

The study, to be published in April in the journal Environmental Modelling & Software, looks at the problem of how to model and predict the flow and levels of the Ebro in the regional capital of Aragon, based on analysis of a 110km section that starts in the town of Castejón, in Navarre.

Pedregal tells SINC that there are other predictive models, “but these are much more complex, determinist, and include a wide range of variables”, while the new model developed, while being less technically conventional, “is more flexible, and is so easy to use that it can be done on any PC”.

The researchers developed the predictive system in two stages. First of all they used a mathematical “transfer” function to determine the scale of the

model and get an approximate idea of the time delay before the water flowing through Castejón has an impact on water levels in Zaragoza.

“But the river’s dynamics don’t behave in a linear way,” points out Pedregal. The professor explains, for example, that the water flows more quickly when it is at an average or low level, that storms do not have the same effect on a dry river bed (which absorbs more water) as a wet one, and that rapid thawing of snow introduces slushy water into the river, which behaves in a different way than liquid water.

All these factors, along with the physics of fluid itself, means that the dynamics of rivers are “not linear”, resulting in the researchers having had to use mathematical systems to reflect these factors and produce a specific algorithm to incorporate the impact of all these variables.

The predictive ability of the model has been contrasted with information from the historical database of the Hydrographic Confederation of the Ebro River, resulting in an average error rate of 2.5% over a 20-hour prediction timescale.

 


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Plataforma SINC. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. D.J. Pedregal, R. Rivas, V. Feliu, L. Sánchez y A. Linares. A non-linear forecasting system for the Ebro River at Zaragoza, Spain. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2009; 24 (4): 502 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.09.010

Cite This Page:

Plataforma SINC. "Simple Method Devised To Predict Rises In Ebro River Level." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 31 March 2009. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090329205549.htm>.
Plataforma SINC. (2009, March 31). Simple Method Devised To Predict Rises In Ebro River Level. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 25, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090329205549.htm
Plataforma SINC. "Simple Method Devised To Predict Rises In Ebro River Level." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090329205549.htm (accessed April 25, 2014).

Share This



More Earth & Climate News

Friday, April 25, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Deadly Fungus Killing Bats, Spreading in US

Deadly Fungus Killing Bats, Spreading in US

AP (Apr. 24, 2014) — A disease that has killed more than six million cave-dwelling bats in the United States is on the move and wildlife biologists are worried. White Nose Syndrome, discovered in New York in 2006, has now spread to 25 states. (April 24) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
New Pictures of Ship That Sank in 1888

New Pictures of Ship That Sank in 1888

AP (Apr. 24, 2014) — Federal researchers have released new images of the City of Chester, a steamship that sank in San Francisco Bay in 1888. Researchers recently found the shipwreck while mapping shipping routes. (April 24) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Risk of Asteroid Hitting Earth Higher Than Thought, Study Shows

Risk of Asteroid Hitting Earth Higher Than Thought, Study Shows

Reuters - US Online Video (Apr. 23, 2014) — A group of space explorers say the chance of a city-obliterating asteroid striking Earth is higher than scientists previously believed. Deborah Gembara reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
UN Joint Mission Starts Removing Landmines in Cyprus

UN Joint Mission Starts Removing Landmines in Cyprus

AFP (Apr. 23, 2014) — The UN mission in Cyprus (UNFICYP) led a mine clearance demonstration on Wednesday in the UN-controlled buffer zone where demining operations are being conducted near the Cypriot village of Mammari. Duration: 01:00 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
 
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:  

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:  

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile iPhone Android Web
Follow Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins