Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Ecological impacts of human responses to climate anticipated

Date:
January 22, 2014
Source:
Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Summary:
When humans transform land, large ecological impacts follow, but few studies have examined their effects. Now, a model evaluates how the human response to climate change may alter the agricultural utility of land. The model provides a readily transferable method for conservation planners trying to anticipate how agriculture will be affected by such land adaptations.

Throughout history, humans have responded to climate.

Take, for example, the Mayans, who, throughout the eighth and 10th centuries, were forced to move away from their major ceremonial centers after a series of multi-year droughts, bringing about agricultural expansion in Mesoamerica, and a clearing of forests. Much later, in the late 20th century, frequent droughts caused the people of Burkina Faso in West Africa to migrate from the dry north to the wetter south where they have transformed forests to croplands and cut the nation's area of natural vegetation in half.

Such land transformations, while necessary to ensure future crop productivity, can themselves have large ecological impacts, but few studies have examined their effects. To that end, a Princeton University research team has created a model to evaluate how a human response to climate change may alter the agricultural utility of land. The study, featured in Conservation Biology, provides a readily transferable method for conservation planners trying to anticipate how agriculture will be affected by such adaptations.

"Humans can transform an ecosystem much more rapidly and completely than it can be altered by shifting temperature and precipitation patterns," said Lyndon Estes, lead author and associate research scholar in the Woodrow Wilson School of International and Public Affairs. "This model provides an initial approach for understanding how agricultural land-use might shift under climate change, and therefore which currently natural areas might be converted to farming."

A Princeton University research team has created a readily transferable method for conservation planners trying to anticipate how agriculture will be affected by such adaptations. The tested their model by studying wheat and maize production in South Africa.

Under the direction of faculty members Michael Oppenheimer and David Wilcove, both from the Wilson School's Program in Science, Technology and Policy, and with the help of visiting student research collaborator Lydie-Line Paroz from ETH Zurich and colleagues from several other institutions, Estes studied South Africa, an area projected to be vulnerable to climate change where wheat and maize are the dominant crops.

Before determining how climate change could impact the crops, the team first needed to determine which areas have been or might be farmed for maize and wheat. They created a land-use model based on an area's potential crop output and simulated how much of each crop was grown from 1979 to 1999 -- the two decades for which historical weather data was available. They also calculated the ruggedness of each area of land, which is related to the cost of farming it. Taking all factors into account, the model provides an estimate of whether the land is likely to be profitable or unprofitable for farming.

To investigate any climate-change impacts, the team then examined the production of wheat and maize under 36 different climate-response scenarios. Many possible future climates were taken into account as well as how the crops might respond to rising levels of carbon dioxide. Based on their land-use model, the researchers calculated how the climate-induced productivity changes alter a land's agricultural utility. In their analysis, they included only conservation lands -- current nature reserves and those that South African conservation officials plan to acquire -- that contained land suitable for growing one of the two crops either currently or in the future. However, Estes said the model could be adapted to assess whether land under other types of uses (besides conservation) are likely to be profitable or unprofitable for future farming.

They found that most conservation lands currently have low agricultural utility because of their rugged terrain, which makes them difficult to farm, and that they are likely to stay that way under future climate-change scenarios. The researchers did pinpoint several areas that could become more valuable for farming in the future, putting them at greater risk of conversion. However, some areas were predicted to decrease value for farming, which could make them easier to protect and conserve.

"While studying the direct response of species to climatic shifts is important, it's only one piece of a complicated puzzle. A big part of that puzzle relates to how humans will react, and history suggests you don't need much to trigger a change in the way land is used that has a fairly long-lasting impact. " said Estes. "We hope that conservation planners can use this approach to start thinking about human climate change adaptation and how it will affect areas needing protection."


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. The original article was written by B. Rose Huber. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. LYNDON D. ESTES, LYDIE-LINE PAROZ, BETHANY A. BRADLEY, JONATHAN M.H. GREEN, DAVID G. HOLE, STEPHEN HOLNESS, GUY ZIV, MICHAEL G. OPPENHEIMER, DAVID S. WILCOVE. Using Changes in Agricultural Utility to Quantify Future Climate-Induced Risk to Conservation. Conservation Biology, 2013; DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12205

Cite This Page:

Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. "Ecological impacts of human responses to climate anticipated." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 22 January 2014. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140122104021.htm>.
Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. (2014, January 22). Ecological impacts of human responses to climate anticipated. ScienceDaily. Retrieved July 25, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140122104021.htm
Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. "Ecological impacts of human responses to climate anticipated." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140122104021.htm (accessed July 25, 2014).

Share This




More Science & Society News

Friday, July 25, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

New Painkiller Designed To Discourage Abuse: Will It Work?

New Painkiller Designed To Discourage Abuse: Will It Work?

Newsy (July 24, 2014) The FDA approved Targiniq ER on Wednesday, a painkiller designed to keep users from abusing it. Like any new medication, however, it has doubters. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Condemned Man's US Execution Takes Nearly Two Hours

Condemned Man's US Execution Takes Nearly Two Hours

AFP (July 24, 2014) America's death penalty debate raged Thursday after it took nearly two hours for Arizona to execute a prisoner who lost a Supreme Court battle challenging the experimental lethal drug cocktail. Duration: 00:55 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Bill Gates: Health, Agriculture Key to Africa's Development

Bill Gates: Health, Agriculture Key to Africa's Development

AFP (July 24, 2014) Health and agriculture development are key if African countries are to overcome poverty and grow, US software billionaire Bill Gates said Thursday, as he received an honourary degree in Ethiopia. Duration: 00:36 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com
China's Ageing Millions Look Forward to Bleak Future

China's Ageing Millions Look Forward to Bleak Future

AFP (July 24, 2014) China's elderly population is expanding so quickly that children struggle to look after them, pushing them to do something unexpected in Chinese society- move their parents into a nursing home. Duration: 02:07 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

    Health News

      Environment News

        Technology News



          Save/Print:
          Share:

          Free Subscriptions


          Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

          Get Social & Mobile


          Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

          Have Feedback?


          Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
          Mobile: iPhone Android Web
          Follow: Facebook Twitter Google+
          Subscribe: RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
          Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins