Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

How do you feed nine billion people?

Date:
June 9, 2013
Source:
Michigan State University
Summary:
An international team of scientists has developed crop models to better forecast food production to feed a growing population -- projected to reach 9 billion by mid-century -- in the face of climate change.

An international team of scientists has developed crop models to better forecast food production to feed a growing population -- projected to reach 9 billion by mid-century -- in the face of climate change.
Credit: Courtesy of MSU

An international team of scientists has developed crop models to better forecast food production to feed a growing population -- projected to reach 9 billion by mid-century -- in the face of climate change.

In a paper appearing in Nature Climate Change, members of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project unveiled an all-encompassing modeling system that integrates multiple crop simulations with improved climate change models. AgMIP's effort has produced new knowledge that better predicts global wheat yields while reducing political and socio-economic influences that can skew data and planning efforts, said Bruno Basso, Michigan State University ecosystem scientist and AgMIP member.

"Quantifying uncertainties is an important step to build confidence in future yield forecasts produced by crop models," said Basso, with MSU's geological sciences department and Kellogg Biological Station. "By using an ensemble of crop and climate models, we can understand how increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, along with temperature increases and precipitation changes, will affect wheat yield globally."

The improved crop models can help guide the world's developed and developing countries as they adapt to changing climate and create policies to improve food security and feed more people, he added.

Basso, part of MSU's Global Water Initiative, and his team of researchers developed the System Approach for Land-Use Sustainability model. SALUS is a new generation crop tool to forecast crop, soil, water, nutrient conditions in current and future climates. It also can evaluate crop rotations, planting dates, irrigation and fertilizer use and project crop yields and their impact on the land.

SALUS was initially designed by Joe Ritchie, MSU emeritus distinguished professor. Basso continued Ritchie's work and added new features to better predict the impact of agronomic management on crop yield over space and time.

"We can change the scenarios, run them simultaneously and compare their outcomes," Basso said. "It offers us a great framework to easily compare different land-management approaches and select the most efficient strategies to increase crop yield and reduce environmental impact such as nitrate leaching and greenhouse gas emission."

For the study, the team looked at simulated yield from 27 different wheat crop models. Through SALUS, Basso forecasted the impact of changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2 emissions on wheat yield from contrasting environment across the planet.

SALUS has been employed in several other projects monitoring grain yield and water use in water-sensitive areas, such as the Ogallala aquifer (spanning from South Dakota to Texas), Siberia, India and Africa.

"I have the ambitious goal to enhance scientific knowledge for living in a better world, and hopefully with less poverty and enough food for the planet," Basso said.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Michigan State University. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. S. Asseng, F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J. W. Jones, J. L. Hatfield, A. C. Ruane, K. J. Boote, P. J. Thorburn, R. P. Rötter, D. Cammarano, N. Brisson, B. Basso, P. Martre, P. K. Aggarwal, C. Angulo, P. Bertuzzi, C. Biernath, A. J. Challinor, J. Doltra, S. Gayler, R. Goldberg, R. Grant, L. Heng, J. Hooker, L. A. Hunt, J. Ingwersen, R. C. Izaurralde, K. C. Kersebaum, C. Müller, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Nendel, G. O’Leary, J. E. Olesen, T. M. Osborne, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, D. Ripoche, M. A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, P. Steduto, C. Stöckle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, M. Travasso, K. Waha, D. Wallach, J. W. White, J. R. Williams, J. Wolf. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2013; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1916

Cite This Page:

Michigan State University. "How do you feed nine billion people?." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 9 June 2013. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/06/130609195713.htm>.
Michigan State University. (2013, June 9). How do you feed nine billion people?. ScienceDaily. Retrieved July 31, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/06/130609195713.htm
Michigan State University. "How do you feed nine billion people?." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/06/130609195713.htm (accessed July 31, 2014).

Share This




More Plants & Animals News

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Raw: Thousands Flocking to German Crop Circle

Raw: Thousands Flocking to German Crop Circle

AP (July 30, 2014) — Thousands of people are trekking to a Bavarian farmer's field to check out a mysterious set of crop circles. (July 30) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Concern Grows Over Worsening Ebola Crisis

Concern Grows Over Worsening Ebola Crisis

AFP (July 30, 2014) — Pan-African airline ASKY has suspended all flights to and from the capitals of Liberia and Sierra Leone amid the worsening Ebola health crisis, which has so far caused 672 deaths in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Duration: 00:43 Video provided by AFP
Powered by NewsLook.com
At Least 20 Chikungunya Cases in New Jersey

At Least 20 Chikungunya Cases in New Jersey

AP (July 30, 2014) — At least 20 New Jersey residents have tested positive for chikungunya, a mosquito-borne virus that has spread through the Caribbean. (July 30) Video provided by AP
Powered by NewsLook.com
Xtreme Eating: Your Daily Caloric Intake All On One Plate

Xtreme Eating: Your Daily Caloric Intake All On One Plate

Newsy (July 30, 2014) — The Center for Science in the Public Interest released its 2014 list of single meals with whopping calorie counts. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
 
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:  

Breaking News:
from the past week

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

    Environment News

    Technology News



      Save/Print:
      Share:  

      Free Subscriptions


      Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

      Get Social & Mobile


      Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

      Have Feedback?


      Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
      Mobile iPhone Android Web
      Follow Facebook Twitter Google+
      Subscribe RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
      Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins