Mets Have 60 Percent Chance Of Winning League Championship Series, Says Mathematician

More picks include:

• A 40 percent probability of the St. Louis Cardinals making it to the World Series with a 19 percent chance of winning in seven games.
• In the American League, the Yankee-slaying Detroit Tigers have a 58 percent chance of prevailing over the Oakland A's. The Tigers' most likely winning scenario is a 19 percent chance of winning in six games, while Oakland's most likely winning scenario is their 15.5 percent chance of taking the series in seven games.

Bukiet achieves results by using his mathematical models on realistic line-ups for each team and game. 

"Anything can happen in a short series," added Bukiet. "We saw that in the division series Jeff Weaver yielded no runs for the first time in over 30 outings. In addition, the Yankees were held scoreless for 21 consecutive innings."

Operations Research published Bukiet's mathematical model on which his predictions are based. His model computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage. Bukiet has appeared on CNN Headline News, the Jerusalem Post and Fox Radio's Roger Hedgecock Show, KOGO, San Diego.

Bukiet, an avid Mets fan, has used this mathematical model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games during the baseball season. His picks posted on his website update daily the chances of each team winning the Division Series, the Championship Series and the World Series. Such postings have led to positive results for five of the past six years.

Bukiet's research focuses on the mathematical modeling of physical phenomena. Current interests include biomedical applications of mathematics, including the dynamics of human balance. He also works in the application of mathematical modeling for sports and gambling, in particular for understanding baseball and cricket. His publications include "Postural Stability Index Is a More Valid Measure of Stability Than Equilibrium Score" Journal of Rehabilitation Research and Development (July/August, 2005) and "Measures of Postural Stability," Journal of Rehabilitation Research and Development (Sept/Oct, 2004). Bukiet recently received the NJIT Excellence in Teaching Award for Outstanding Work. Bukiet received his PhD in mathematics from the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University.