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Measured soil moisture improves wildfire prediction

Use of high quality soil moisture data proposed

Date:
July 25, 2017
Source:
American Society of Agronomy
Summary:
New research supports using different soil moisture measurement systems for more accurate wildfire risk assessment in Oklahoma and similar areas.
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Despite the known connection between soil moisture and wildfire danger, measured soil moisture is conspicuously absent from the list of variables commonly used in wildfire danger assessments. Instead, assessments enlist the help of the decades-old Keetch-Byram Drought index (KBDI), a soil moisture surrogate calculated from precipitation and estimated evapotranspiration. In the absence of measured soil moisture data, the reliance upon KBDI as a surrogate to assess wildfire danger is understandable. But is the continued reliance on KBDI justified when high quality soil moisture data are available?

According to recent work published in Soil Science Society of America Journal, the answer is no. Researchers in Oklahoma compared the relationships of measured soil moisture, as fraction of available water capacity (FAW), and KBDI with wildfire occurrence statewide and found that FAW consistently outperformed KBDI.

Soil moisture conditions conducive to large growing-season wildfires were more narrowly defined by FAW, regression models based on FAW correctly classified days with large fires at a higher rate, and FAW provided earlier warning of extreme wildfire potential. Based on these findings, the authors call for the replacement of KBDI with FAW in growing-season wildfire danger assessments in Oklahoma and regions with similar climate and vegetation types.


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Materials provided by American Society of Agronomy. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Erik S. Krueger, Tyson E. Ochsner, Steven M. Quiring, David M. Engle, J.D. Carlson, Dirac Twidwell, Samuel D. Fuhlendorf. Measured Soil Moisture is a Better Predictor of Large Growing-Season Wildfires than the Keetch–Byram Drought Index. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 2017; 81 (3): 490 DOI: 10.2136/sssaj2017.01.0003

Cite This Page:

American Society of Agronomy. "Measured soil moisture improves wildfire prediction." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 25 July 2017. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/07/170725083707.htm>.
American Society of Agronomy. (2017, July 25). Measured soil moisture improves wildfire prediction. ScienceDaily. Retrieved February 18, 2025 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/07/170725083707.htm
American Society of Agronomy. "Measured soil moisture improves wildfire prediction." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/07/170725083707.htm (accessed February 18, 2025).

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