Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations

Fast And Cheap Forecasting System For Mediterranean Cyclones

Date:
May 28, 2009
Source:
Plataforma SINC
Summary:
Scientists have developed a new methodology to improve forecasting success between 48 and 24 hours before cyclones occur in the Mediterranean Sea. The researchers have used a low-cost means of statistically calculating the sensitivity of the real atmosphere in order to make climatologically-precise cyclone predictions.

Mediterranean cyclone, October 1996.
Credit: NASA / ESA

Scientists from the University of the Balearic Islands have developed a new methodology to improve forecasting success between 48 and 24 hours before cyclones occur in the Mediterranean Sea. The researchers have used a low-cost means of statistically calculating the sensitivity of the real atmosphere in order to make climatologically-precise cyclone predictions.

Related Articles


The Mediterranean region is a very active cyclone area, and is often affected by these atmospheric phenomena, which bring strong winds and heavy rain. Despite the efforts of the scientific community to improve numerical cyclone prediction, the systems developed are costly.

“Sensitivity studies are a low-cost and efficient way of establishing the best kinds of observation strategies”, Lorena Garcies, lead author of the study and a researcher in the Meteorology Group at the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB), said.

The study, which has been published in Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, shows that analyses of atmospheric sensitivity are useful for designing “efficient” observation networks based in Europe, and strategies that can be adapted to “especially dangerous” events.

“Areas with low levels of in situ measurements, such as northern Africa, the Mediterranean Sea and the north east Atlantic, are important areas in the prediction of intense, short-range Mediterranean cyclones”, says Vνctor Homar, another of the study’s authors and a researcher at the UIB.

Measuring the ‘sensitivities’ of the atmosphere

Garcies and Homar have developed a methodology that builds up a climatology based on atmospheric sensitivities “without any dependence on numerical prediction models”. The researchers applied statistical calculations of this sensitivity to the climatology of intense Mediterranean cyclones and obtained more precise estimates of the sensitivity of the real atmosphere.

With this method, the scientists are able to improve the prediction of cyclones’ development and impact between 48 and 24 hours before they fully form. Temperature and wind speed are also important factors in predicting this high-impact phenomenon.

“The results for intense Mediterranean cyclones show dynamic, spatial and temporal coherence between the sensitivity fields, and are consistent with similar results obtained by using much more expensive sensitivity techniques”, Garcies and Homar point out.

The researchers are inviting the network of European Meteorological Institutes (EUMETNET) to use this new system to help improve observation systems over the regions of western Europe, northern Africa and the Atlantic Ocean, and “to bring about a systematic improvement in the forecasting of high-impact events in the Mediterranean”.

Forecasting is improved by increasing the observations within data assimilation systems, but Garcies believes that “building up in situ observations to the same levels over all areas is an unachievable goal, because it is incompatible with growing public demand for improved forecasts with maximum efficiency but at the lowest cost”.


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Plataforma SINC. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Garcies et al. Ensemble sensitivities of the real atmosphere: application to Mediterranean intense cyclones. Tellus A, 2009; 61 (3): 394 DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00392.x

Cite This Page:

Plataforma SINC. "Fast And Cheap Forecasting System For Mediterranean Cyclones." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 28 May 2009. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090526094610.htm>.
Plataforma SINC. (2009, May 28). Fast And Cheap Forecasting System For Mediterranean Cyclones. ScienceDaily. Retrieved November 27, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090526094610.htm
Plataforma SINC. "Fast And Cheap Forecasting System For Mediterranean Cyclones." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090526094610.htm (accessed November 27, 2014).

Share This


More From ScienceDaily



More Earth & Climate News

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Featured Research

from universities, journals, and other organizations


Featured Videos

from AP, Reuters, AFP, and other news services

Bolivian Recycling Initiative Turns Plastic Waste Into School Furniture

Bolivian Recycling Initiative Turns Plastic Waste Into School Furniture

Reuters - Innovations Video Online (Nov. 26, 2014) — Innovative recycling project in La Paz separates city waste and converts plastic garbage into school furniture made from 'plastiwood'. Tara Cleary reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com
Blu-Ray Discs Getting Second Run As Solar Panels

Blu-Ray Discs Getting Second Run As Solar Panels

Newsy (Nov. 26, 2014) — Researchers at Northwestern University are repurposing Blu-ray movies for better solar panel technology thanks to the discs' internal structures. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
Antarctic Sea Ice Mystery Thickens... Literally

Antarctic Sea Ice Mystery Thickens... Literally

Newsy (Nov. 25, 2014) — Antarctic sea ice isn't only expanding, it's thicker than previously thought, and scientists aren't sure exactly why. Video provided by Newsy
Powered by NewsLook.com
3D Map of Antarctic Sea Ice to Shed Light on Climate Change

3D Map of Antarctic Sea Ice to Shed Light on Climate Change

Reuters - Innovations Video Online (Nov. 24, 2014) — A multinational group of scientists have released the first ever detailed, high-resolution 3-D maps of Antarctic sea ice. Using an underwater robot equipped with sonar, the researchers mapped the underside of a massive area of sea ice to gauge the impact of climate change. Ben Gruber reports. Video provided by Reuters
Powered by NewsLook.com

Search ScienceDaily

Number of stories in archives: 140,361

Find with keyword(s):
 
Enter a keyword or phrase to search ScienceDaily for related topics and research stories.

Save/Print:
Share:  

Breaking News:

Strange & Offbeat Stories

 

Plants & Animals

Earth & Climate

Fossils & Ruins

In Other News

... from NewsDaily.com

Science News

Health News

Environment News

Technology News



Save/Print:
Share:  

Free Subscriptions


Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

Get Social & Mobile


Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks and mobile apps:

Have Feedback?


Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?
Mobile iPhone Android Web
Follow Facebook Twitter Google+
Subscribe RSS Feeds Email Newsletters
Latest Headlines Health & Medicine Mind & Brain Space & Time Matter & Energy Computers & Math Plants & Animals Earth & Climate Fossils & Ruins