ScienceDaily
Your source for the latest research news
Follow Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Subscribe RSS Feeds Newsletters
New:
  • 3D Printing Metal-Plastic Composite Structures
  • 2,000-Year-Old Shipwreck: Complex Trade
  • Mammoth Problem With Extinction Timeline
  • Landslide Risk Remains Long After a Quake
  • Physicists Observe Wormhole Dynamics
  • New Method of Spinal Cord Tissue Repair
  • How Giant-Faced Owls Snag Voles Hidden in Snow
  • 'Unrecyclable' Plastic Can Now Be Recycled
  • Fossil Upends Views On Origin of Modern Birds
  • Mysteriously Bright Flash Pointing Toward Earth
advertisement
Follow all of ScienceDaily's latest research news and top science headlines!
Science News
from research organizations

1

2

Is That Your Final Answer? Study Suggests Method For Improving Individual Decisions

Date:
March 14, 2009
Source:
Association for Psychological Science
Summary:
What if there is no one else around to consult with before making a judgment - how can we be confident that we are giving a good answer? A new study suggests that "dialectical bootstrapping" (that is, thinking about why your own answer might be incorrect and then averaging across estimates) may be an effective strategy in helping us come up with better answers to many types of problems.
Share:
FULL STORY

Herd mentality. Angry mob. Mass hysteria. As these phrases suggest, we are not always confident that a large group of people will come up with the smartest decisions. So it may be surprising to learn that numerous studies have shown that a crowd of people usually gives more accurate responses to questions compared to a mere individual.

advertisement

Averaging the responses provided from a group increases accuracy by canceling out a number of errors made across the board (such as over- and under-estimating the answer).

What happens when we are on our own? What if there is no one else around to consult with before making a judgment - how can we be confident that we are giving a good answer? Psychologists Stefan M. Herzog and Ralph Hertwig from the University of Basel wanted to know if individuals could come up with better answers using a technique they designed and called "dialectical bootstrapping."

Dialectical bootstrapping is a method by which an individual mind averages its' own conflicting opinions, thus simulating the "wisdom of the crowd." In other words, dialectical bootstrapping enables different opinions to be created and combined in the same mind. For example, in this study, participants were asked to identify dates of various historical events. After they gave their initial answer, the participants were asked to think of reasons why the answer may be wrong and were then asked to come up with an alternative second (dialectical) answer.

The results, reported in Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, reveal that the average of the participants' first answer with the second answer was much closer to the correct answer, compared to the original answers on their own. In addition, the dialectical bootstrapping method (that is, thinking about why your own answer might be incorrect and then averaging across estimates) resulted in more accurate answers compared to simply making a second guess without considering why the first answer may be wrong.

These findings suggest that dialectical bootstrapping may be an effective strategy in helping us come up with better answers to many types of problems. The researchers note that while it may be frustrating going back and forth between two different answers, "as dialectical bootstrapping illustrates, being of two minds can also work to one's advantage." They conclude, "Once taught about the tool, people could make use of it to boost accuracy of their estimates across a wide range of domains."

make a difference: sponsored opportunity

Story Source:

Materials provided by Association for Psychological Science. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Herzog et al. The Wisdom of Many in One Mind: Improving Individual Judgments With Dialectical Bootstrapping. Psychological Science, 2009; 20 (2): 231 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02271.x

Cite This Page:

  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
Association for Psychological Science. "Is That Your Final Answer? Study Suggests Method For Improving Individual Decisions." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 14 March 2009. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090310155609.htm>.
Association for Psychological Science. (2009, March 14). Is That Your Final Answer? Study Suggests Method For Improving Individual Decisions. ScienceDaily. Retrieved November 30, 2022 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090310155609.htm
Association for Psychological Science. "Is That Your Final Answer? Study Suggests Method For Improving Individual Decisions." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090310155609.htm (accessed November 30, 2022).

  • RELATED TOPICS
    • Mind & Brain
      • Consumer Behavior
      • Child Psychology
advertisement

  • RELATED TERMS
    • Lateral thinking
    • Schizophrenia
    • Thought
    • Collaboration
    • Adult attention-deficit disorder
    • Ego psychology
    • Lead poisoning
    • Altruism
advertisement

  Print   Email   Share

advertisement

1

2

3

4

5
Most Popular
this week

HEALTH & MEDICINE
Put the Kettle On! How Black Tea (and Other Favorites) May Help Your Health Later in Life
Differences Between Brains of Primates Are Small but Significant, Study Shows
Human Evolution Wasn't Just the Sheet Music, but How It Was Played
MIND & BRAIN
525-Million-Year-Old Fossil Defies Textbook Explanation for Brain Evolution
Artificial Neural Networks Learn Better When They Spend Time Not Learning at All
Drinking During Pregnancy Changes Baby's Brain Structure
LIVING & WELL
Why Some People Are Mosquito Magnets
Wireless Earphones as Inexpensive Hearing Aids
Stop Counting Cups: There's an Ocean of Difference in Our Water-Drinking Needs
advertisement

Strange & Offbeat
 

HEALTH & MEDICINE
Green Means GO! Ultra-Violet Means STOP!
AI-Generated X-Ray Images Fooled Medical Experts and Improved Osteoarthritis Classification
Synthetic Biology Meets Medicine: 'Programmable Molecular Scissors' Could Help Fight COVID-19 Infection
MIND & BRAIN
525-Million-Year-Old Fossil Defies Textbook Explanation for Brain Evolution
Witchcraft Beliefs Are Widespread, Highly Variable Around the World, Study Finds
Artificial Neural Networks Learn Better When They Spend Time Not Learning at All
LIVING & WELL
AI Helps Researchers Design Microneedle Patches That Restore Hair in Balding Mice
Cats Distinguish Between Speech Directed at Them and Humans, Study Finds
Unlocking the Power of Our Emotional Memory
Explore More
from ScienceDaily

RELATED STORIES

Anesthesia's Effect on Consciousness Solved, Settling Century-Old Scientific Debate
May 29, 2020 — How does general anesthesia cause loss of consciousness? Despite its 175-year-history of use by the U.S. medical system, science has been unable to definitively answer that question, until now. The ...
Under Time Pressure, People Tell Us What We Want to Hear
Oct. 11, 2019 — When asked to answer questions quickly and impulsively, people tend to respond with a socially desirable answer rather than an honest one, a set of experiments ...
Scientists Help Robots Understand Humans With 20 Questions Game Idea
Mar. 7, 2018 — Information scientists have borrowed from the popular game "20 Questions," to make an important step towards helping robots maintain continuous and purposeful conversation with humans. They have ...
After Searching 12 Years for Bipolar Disorder's Cause, Research Team Concludes It Has Many
Dec. 15, 2017 — Nearly six million Americans have bipolar disorder, and most have probably wondered why. After more than a decade of studying over 1,100 of them in-depth, a team of scientists has an answer -- or ...
advertisement


SD
  • SD
    • Home Page
    • Top Science News
    • Latest News
  • Home
    • Home Page
    • Top Science News
    • Latest News
  • Health
    • View all the latest top news in the health sciences,
      or browse the topics below:
      Health & Medicine
      • Allergy
      • Alternative Medicine
      • Birth Control
      • Cancer
      • Diabetes
      • Diseases
      • Heart Disease
      • HIV and AIDS
      • Obesity
      • Stem Cells
      • ... more topics
      Mind & Brain
      • ADD and ADHD
      • Addiction
      • Alzheimer's
      • Autism
      • Depression
      • Headaches
      • Intelligence
      • Psychology
      • Relationships
      • Schizophrenia
      • ... more topics
      Living Well
      • Parenting
      • Pregnancy
      • Sexual Health
      • Skin Care
      • Men's Health
      • Women's Health
      • Nutrition
      • Diet and Weight Loss
      • Fitness
      • Healthy Aging
      • ... more topics
  • Tech
    • View all the latest top news in the physical sciences & technology,
      or browse the topics below:
      Matter & Energy
      • Aviation
      • Chemistry
      • Electronics
      • Fossil Fuels
      • Nanotechnology
      • Physics
      • Quantum Physics
      • Solar Energy
      • Technology
      • Wind Energy
      • ... more topics
      Space & Time
      • Astronomy
      • Black Holes
      • Dark Matter
      • Extrasolar Planets
      • Mars
      • Moon
      • Solar System
      • Space Telescopes
      • Stars
      • Sun
      • ... more topics
      Computers & Math
      • Artificial Intelligence
      • Communications
      • Computer Science
      • Hacking
      • Mathematics
      • Quantum Computers
      • Robotics
      • Software
      • Video Games
      • Virtual Reality
      • ... more topics
  • Enviro
    • View all the latest top news in the environmental sciences,
      or browse the topics below:
      Plants & Animals
      • Agriculture and Food
      • Animals
      • Biology
      • Biotechnology
      • Endangered Animals
      • Extinction
      • Genetically Modified
      • Microbes and More
      • New Species
      • Zoology
      • ... more topics
      Earth & Climate
      • Climate
      • Earthquakes
      • Environment
      • Geography
      • Geology
      • Global Warming
      • Hurricanes
      • Ozone Holes
      • Pollution
      • Weather
      • ... more topics
      Fossils & Ruins
      • Ancient Civilizations
      • Anthropology
      • Archaeology
      • Dinosaurs
      • Early Humans
      • Early Mammals
      • Evolution
      • Lost Treasures
      • Origin of Life
      • Paleontology
      • ... more topics
  • Society
    • View all the latest top news in the social sciences & education,
      or browse the topics below:
      Science & Society
      • Arts & Culture
      • Consumerism
      • Economics
      • Political Science
      • Privacy Issues
      • Public Health
      • Racial Disparity
      • Religion
      • Sports
      • World Development
      • ... more topics
      Business & Industry
      • Biotechnology & Bioengineering
      • Computers & Internet
      • Energy & Resources
      • Engineering
      • Medical Technology
      • Pharmaceuticals
      • Transportation
      • ... more topics
      Education & Learning
      • Animal Learning & Intelligence
      • Creativity
      • Educational Psychology
      • Educational Technology
      • Infant & Preschool Learning
      • Learning Disorders
      • STEM Education
      • ... more topics
  • Quirky
    • Top News
    • Human Quirks
    • Odd Creatures
    • Bizarre Things
    • Weird World
Free Subscriptions

Get the latest science news with ScienceDaily's free email newsletters, updated daily and weekly. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader:

  • Email Newsletters
  • RSS Feeds
Follow Us

Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks:

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
Have Feedback?

Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?

  • Leave Feedback
  • Contact Us
About This Site  |  Staff  |  Reviews  |  Contribute  |  Advertise  |  Privacy Policy  |  Editorial Policy  |  Terms of Use
Copyright 1995-2022 ScienceDaily or by other parties, where indicated. All rights controlled by their respective owners.
Content on this website is for information only. It is not intended to provide medical or other professional advice.
Views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily, its staff, its contributors, or its partners.
Financial support for ScienceDaily comes from advertisements and referral programs, where indicated.
— CCPA: Do Not Sell My Information — GDPR: Privacy Settings —