Blood glucose levels measured in hospitalized patients can predict risk of type 2 diabetes

The researchers obtained measurements of blood glucose levels on admission for 86,634 patients aged 40 years or older who were admitted to a hospital for an acute illness between 2004 and 2008 in Scotland and identified those patients who developed type 2 diabetes up to December 2011 through the Scottish Care Information -- Diabetes Collaboration national registry. They found that the overall 3-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes was 2.3%, with the risk of developing diabetes increased linearly with increasing blood glucose level at admission. The 3-year risk of type 2 diabetes was 1% for patients with a glucose level of less than 5 mmol/l (90 mg/dl) and increased to approximately 15% for patients with a glucose of 15 mmol/l (270 mg/dl) or more.

Based on their analyses, the researchers developed a risk calculator (http://www.cphs.mvm.ed.ac.uk/diabetes-risk/) that uses the patient's age, sex, and admission blood glucose level to predict risk of developing diabetes over 3 years following hospital admission. However, the authors note that this approach has not yet been validated in non-white populations or populations outside of Scotland.

The authors say: "These findings can be used to inform individual patients of their long-term risk of type 2 diabetes and to offer lifestyle advice as appropriate."